Gold analysis 09.07.2019

Gold futures traded in a tight range slipping towards the Asian session to see their fifth session retreat from its highest since June 25, when it tested its highest since May 14, 2013, amid the positive stability of the US dollar index According to the opposite relationship between them on the eve of developments and economic data expected Tuesday by the US economy, the largest economy in the world, including the talk of Fed Governor Graum Powell and members of the Federal Open Market Committee.

Gold futures for August delivery fell 0.06% to currently trade at $ 1,397.00 per ounce, compared to the opening at $ 1,397.90 an ounce. The contracts started trading on a bearish price gap after closing Yesterday at $ 1,400.00 an ounce, amid the dollar index rose 0.01% to 97.39 compared to the opening at 97.38.

Investors are waiting for Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell to make the opening remarks at the event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, before we also see the US economy reading a statistical employment and employment turnover that may reflect a rise to 7.51 million versus 7.44 million in April Last April.

This comes hours after the release of the US labor market data for June, which showed last Friday, rising unemployment rates from the lowest in 49 years to 3.7% compared to the previous May and expectations at 3.6%, while the average income per hour The pace of growth slowed to 0.2% from the previous reading and forecasts at 0.3%.

In the same context, we followed Friday's reading of the Non-Farm Employment Change Index, which accelerated job creation to 224,000 versus 72,000 in May, limiting opportunities for interest rate cuts at the next FOMC meeting and weighing expectations Down 25 basis points to 50 basis points, now forecasting a 25bp cut or postponement of a cut to another one.

Federal Open Market Committee Chairman James Pollard, who is due to deliver the opening address at the meeting of the Federal Forum on Cash and Financial Institutions in St. Louis and Federal Reserve Vice Governor Randall Quarles, who is scheduled to speak about the test Stress at the event hosted by the Boston Federal Reserve Bank.

Elsewhere, markets are looking for Federal Reserve Governor Paul to open the first half of the half-yearly monetary policy testimony before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday before giving his second half-day testimony to the Senate Banking Committee in Washington, Investors are waiting for any hints about the future monetary policy that the Federal Reserve may adopt later.

Investors are also looking forward to Wednesday's minutes of the Federal Committee meeting held on June 18-19, during which Fed policymakers kept benchmark interest rates between 2.25% and 2.50% for the fourth consecutive meeting with their disclosure Then the Federal Reserve's expectations of growth rates, inflation and unemployment as well as future interest rates for the next three years.

The Federal Commission last month dropped the word "patient" from its statement and added "we will act as necessary" to maintain the economy, which in turn opened the way for a possible reduction in federal interest rates later. In particular, Members see a reduction this year, knowing that the average forecast did not reflect any reduction this year, but next year 2020.

At a press conference following the Federal Reserve meeting in Washington, Fed Governor Paul said that some Fed monetary policy makers believe the issue of soft monetary policy has been strengthened, stressing that the Commission will continue to monitor developments and economic data closely in the coming period to determine The future of monetary policy depending on those developments and data.

We would like to point out that Powell noted early this month that the broader market expectations of a federal interest rate cut at the next FOMC meeting were not necessarily achieved, limiting the chances of a reduction in the Fed at the next meeting on July 30-31. , And fell expectations of markets down last Friday with the addition of the US economy last month jobs exceeded expectations.

Technical Analysis

The price of gold ended yesterday's trading below 1400.30, and the negative pressure remains intact, awaiting the resumption of the bearish trend to visit 38.2% Fibonacci at 1376.30, which is our next main target.

Therefore, we will keep our bearish bias intact unless the levels of 1400.30 and 1405.00 are breached and stability above it, noting that breaking this level will extend the downside wave to 1357.00 as the next major station.

The trading range for today is among the support at 1376.00 and resistance at 1410.00.