AUD analysis 09.07.2019

The Australian dollar fell during the Asian session to rebound for the fourth consecutive session of its highest since May 7 against the US dollar following the economic data that followed the Australian economy and on the eve of developments and economic data expected Tuesday by the US economy, the largest economy in the world Including US Federal Reserve Governor Graum Powell and members of the Federal Open Market Committee.

At 0215 GMT, the AUDUSD fell 0.14% to 0.6962 compared with the opening levels at 0.6972, after hitting the lowest level since July 2 at 0.6957. Session trading at 0.6975.

We followed the Australian economy by reading the Australian National Bank of Business Confidence Index, which showed a contraction to 2 versus 7 in May, while the Australian National Bank's confidence in the current situation showed an increase of 3 versus Its value is 1 in May.

On the other hand, investors are currently waiting for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to present the opening remarks at the event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank, before we also see the US economy reading a statistical employment and employment turnover that may reflect a rise to 7.51 million versus 7.44 Million in April.

This comes hours after the release of the US labor market data for June, which showed last Friday, rising unemployment rates from the lowest in 49 years to 3.7% compared to the previous May and expectations at 3.6%, while the average income per hour The pace of growth slowed to 0.2% from the previous reading and forecasts at 0.3%.

In the same context, we also followed at the end of last week. The Non-Farm Employment Change Index showed job creation accelerated to 224,000 jobs, up from 72,000 jobs added in May, which weighed in one way or another on interest rate cuts On federal funds during the FOMC meeting on July 30-31, particularly expectations for a 50bp cut.

Federal Open Market Committee Chairman James Pollard, who is due to deliver the opening address at the meeting of the Federal Forum on Cash and Financial Institutions in St. Louis and Federal Reserve Vice Governor Randall Quarles, who is scheduled to speak about the test Stress at the event hosted by the Boston Federal Reserve Bank.

Elsewhere, markets are looking for Federal Reserve Governor Paul to open the first half of the half-yearly monetary policy testimony before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday before giving his second half-day testimony to the Senate Banking Committee in Washington, Investors are waiting for any hints about the future monetary policy that the Federal Reserve may adopt later.

Investors are also looking forward to Wednesday's minutes of the Federal Committee meeting held on June 18-19, during which Fed policymakers kept benchmark interest rates between 2.25% and 2.50% for the fourth consecutive meeting with their disclosure Then the Federal Reserve's expectations of growth rates, inflation and unemployment as well as future interest rates for the next three years.

Technical Analysis

The AUDUSD managed to surpass SMA 50 and stability below it, which supports our continued bearish outlook for the upcoming sessions, opening the way towards our next target at 0.6900.

Therefore, we will continue to bias the bearishness over intraday and short term unless the level of 0.7044 is breached and stability above it.

The trading range for today is expected among the support at 0.6900 and the resistance at 0.7000.

The general trend for today is bearish.