Gold analysis 05.07.2019

Gold futures fluctuated in a narrowly bearish range to see their second consecutive straight bounce since June 25, when it tested its highest since May 14 of 2013, while still on its seventh straight weekly gain The week's longest weekly gain since 2011, as the dollar rallied to a six-session high of nine sessions since March 21, according to the inverse relationship between them on the eve of developments and economic data expected Friday by the US economy.

Gold futures for August delivery fell 0.11% to currently trade at $ 1,420.00 per ounce compared to the opening at $ 1,421.60 an ounce. The contracts started today trading on a bullish price gap after closing Yesterday at $ 1,420.90 an ounce, the center of the dollar rose 0.03% to 96.75 compared to the opening at 96.72.

Investors are currently looking for the US economy to reveal last month's labor market data, which could reflect a stable unemployment rate at a 49-year low of 3.6%, unchanged from May, amid expectations that the Non-Farm Payrolls Job creation accelerated to 164,000 versus 75,000, and the median hourly earnings index accelerated to 0.3% versus 0.2%.

This comes after the disclosure last Wednesday of preliminary data for the US labor market, which showed the acceleration of job creation to 102 thousand according to the index of change in private sector jobs, compared to 41 thousand in May, below expectations at 140 thousand, Of the US is among the important reports that weigh heavily on the decisions and directions of monetary policy makers at the Fed.

We note that Fed Governor Jerome Powell noted last week that the broader market expectations of a federal interest rate cut at the next FOMC meeting were not necessarily achieved, limiting federal Fed interest rate cuts through the Federal Reserve. The next meeting of the Federal Commission on July 30-31.

The Federal Open Market Committee last month dropped the word "patient" from its statement and added "we will act as necessary" to preserve the economy, which then opened the way for a possible reduction in federal interest rates later. In particular, That eight members see a reduction this year, knowing that the average forecast did not reflect any reduction this year.

At a press conference held after the Federal Committee meeting on June 18-19, Federal Reserve Governor Paul said that some monetary policy makers in the Federal Reserve believe that the issue of soft monetary policy has been strengthened, stressing that the Commission will continue to monitor developments and data Economic outlook during the coming period to determine the future of monetary policy depending on those developments and data.

Technical Analysis

The price of gold has been trading sideways since yesterday and continues to move around 1425.00, and since the price is above 1400.00, our bullish outlook remains intact for the coming period as the price moves within the ascending channel that carries trades from 1275.00 areas, waiting for a breach of 1439.00 to confirm the extension of the bullish wave towards 1500.00.

The trading range for today is expected among the support at 1410.00 and resistance at 1440.00.

The general trend for today is bullish.