AUD analysis 03.07.2019

The Australian dollar fluctuated in a tight range slipping into the Asian session to see its rebound for the second session in three sessions of its highest since May 7 against the US dollar following developments and economic data that followed on the Australian economy and on the eve of developments and economic data expected on Wednesday from Ahead of the US economy, the world's largest economy.

At 2:18 am GMT, the AUDUSD dropped 0.03% to 0.6992, compared with the opening levels of 0.6994, after recording a low of 0.6985 and a high of 0.6997.

On the Australian economy, we saw the reading of the services sector index, which showed a contraction of 52.2 versus 25.5 in May, before we saw the release of housing market data with the building permits reading showing a rise of 0.7% compared to 3.4% In April, surpassing expectations for stability at zero levels, while the annual reading of the same index shrank to 19.6% against 23.4%, well above expectations that the decline to 21.5%.

Leading to the reading of the trade balance index, which showed a surplus to A 5.75 billion Australian dollars compared to 4.82 billion Australian dollars in April, exceeding expectations that the surplus widened to A $ 5.25 million, following the hours of disclosure of the Reserve Bank statement Australian interest rate, which was cut by 25 basis points for the second consecutive meeting to 1.00% from 1.25%, and the talk of Governor of the Central Bank of Australia Philippe Lowy at the dinner of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank of Australia in Darwin.

On the other hand, investors are currently waiting for the US economy to release preliminary data for the labor market with the release of the index of change in private sector jobs, which may reflect the acceleration of job creation to 140 thousand added jobs compared to 27 thousand jobs added in May, before Hours of disclosure of the monthly report of non-agricultural jobs and unemployment rates in addition to the average income per hour for the last month.

This comes ahead of the reading of the index of requests for aid for the week ending June 29, which may reflect a decrease of 7 thousand applications to 220 thousand applications, as may show reading the index of continuing claims for the week of last 22 of last month also decreased by 7 thousand To 1,681 thousand, with a trade balance reading that could reflect a widening deficit to $ 53.2 billion versus $ 50.8 billion in April.

Leading to the final reading of the index of the Institute of Supply Services by Markit for America, which may reflect the stability of the expansion at 50.7, not significantly changed from the preliminary reading for June and compared to 50.9 in May, before the disclosure of the index of the Institute of Supply Service, which may appear shrinking Widened to 56.1 versus 56.9 in May, in conjunction with a factory demand reading, which may indicate contraction of the decline to 0.4% vs. 0.8% in April.

Technical Analysis

The AUDUSD is slightly bullish to test the 0.7000 barrier, but since the price is below 0.7044, our bearish outlook remains valid for today, supported by the negative sign from Stochastic, pending a resumption of the bearish trend targeting 0.6900 as the next major station.

The trading range for today is expected among the support at 0.6930 and the resistance at 0.7044.

The general trend for today is bearish.