EUR analysis 26.06.2019

The single currency of the European Union region fluctuated in a narrowly bearish range during the Asian session to see its rebound for the second straight session since March 21 against the US dollar on the eve of developments and economic data expected Wednesday by the largest euro area economies Germany The US economy is the world's largest economy earlier this week.

The pair rose 0.11% to 1.1355 compared to the opening at 1.1366, after reaching its lowest level at 1.1353, while reaching a high of 1.1372.

The markets for the German economy are looking for a statistical reading of the consumer confidence index, which may reflect the contraction of the widening to 10.0 versus 10.1 in June. Otherwise, we followed yesterday the Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salveni expressed his government's unwillingness to make any commitments About the government deficit for the budget for 2020, until the deficit becomes clear this year and there is an agreement with the European Union.

On the other hand, investors are currently looking for the US economy to detect the Durable Goods Orders, which account for about half of consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of US GDP, which may reflect stability at zero levels versus 2.1% While the core reading of the index itself may show 0.1% growth versus zero in April.

This comes in conjunction with the release of the trade balance of goods which may show the deficit shrinking to $ 71.8 billion against $ 72.1 billion in April, and the initial reading of the Wholesale Inventories Index, which may indicate a slowdown in growth to 0.6% from 0.8% This comes hours after Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell spoke in New York, limiting opportunities for interest rate cuts by the next meeting.

In his speech on economic and monetary policy at the Council on Foreign Relations, Powell said that many members of the Federal Open Market Committee are expecting expansionary measures, adding that the strength of the economic fundamentals supports the continued pace of growth and employment, And the economy continues to grow, while inflation is at the Fed's target.

Powell also noted that the Federal Commission expects inflationary growth to grow despite inflation stabilizing below 2 per cent. He pointed out that the business and agriculture sectors were concerned by the escalation of trade tensions. He added that the Committee's expectations remained positive despite the increasing uncertainty, While confirming that the Fed is closely monitoring developments in the domestic situation with its full readiness to act appropriately.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD pair is showing a downside bias after approaching our target of 1.1443 yesterday, to move around 1.1355 now, as the price is affected by stochastic negativity, keeping in mind that the continuation of the bearish bias and break of 1.1320 will press the pair to further decline and test 1.1265 levels. 1.1180 before any new attempt to rise.

So far, the positive scenario will remain effective for today, provided stability remains above 1.1320, with a reminder that a break of 1.1443 will extend the upside wave to 1.1565 as a next stop.

The trading range for today is expected among the 1.1280 support and the 1.1443 resistance.

The general trend for today is bullish.