Gold analysis 21.06.2019

Gold futures rallied during the Asian session, their highest since September 3, 2013, as the dollar index fell to its lowest level since June 7, when it tested its lowest since March 26 on the back of developments And economic data expected Friday by the US economy the largest economy in the world and following the pricing of investors to the strikes in the Middle East and pricing markets for opportunities to adopt the major global central banks for further stimulation later.

Gold futures for August delivery rose 1.22% to currently trade at $ 1,408.20 per ounce compared to the opening at $ 1,391.20 an ounce. The contracts closed yesterday at $ 1,396.90 an ounce before trading Today, on a narrowing price gap, followed by a six-year high of $ 1,415.40 per ounce, with the US dollar index falling 0.07% to 96.55, the lowest level in two weeks compared to the opening at 96.61.

Investors are currently waiting for the US economy to disclose the preliminary reading of the Industrial Purchasing and Service Index Markit for the United States, the world's largest industrial nation, amid expectations for the stability of the expansion of the industrial sector at 50.5 unchanged from the previous reading earlier this month, compared to 50.6 in May, And the service sector expanded to 51.0 compared to the initial reading of 50.9 versus 53.0 in May.

This comes ahead of the release of housing market data with the Existing Home Sales Index reading, which could reflect a 1.2% rise to 5.29 million homes versus a 0.4% drop at 5.19 million homes last April, Fed Governor Lyle Prinard at the opening of the monetary policy summit of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland in Cincinnati.

The Fed's monetary policy makers agreed last Wednesday to stay benchmark rates between 2.25% and 2.50% for the fourth consecutive meeting at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on June 18-19 in Washington, During which the Federal Commission's expectations of growth rates, inflation and unemployment as well as future interest rates for the next three years.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve dropped the word "patient" from its statement and added, "We will act as necessary" to maintain the economy, which reflects the opening for a possible reduction in federal interest rates later. Eight members see a reduction this year, knowing that the average forecast did not reflect any reduction this year, but next year 2020.

Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell said at a press conference after the meeting in Washington on Wednesday that some monetary policy makers in the Fed believe that the issue of soft monetary policy has been strengthened, stressing that the Committee will continue to monitor developments and economic data closely during the coming period To determine the future of monetary policy depending on those developments and data.

Otherwise, we have followed Tuesday the European Central Bank Governor Mario Draghi said at the European Central Bank's forum on central banks in Sintra, Portugal, that the ECB does not target specific levels of the euro exchange rate, noting that the continued ambiguity strengthens risks and the absence of improvement requires action, Pointing out that the inflationary pressures are still weak and they are moving at a slow pace amidst the pace of growth.

European Central Bank Governor Draghi also noted at the forum that the EC will take more monetary stimulus steps unless growth and inflationary pressures in the euro zone improve, following the fact that interest rate cuts will continue to be one of the ECB's instruments. The ECB is ready to expand the stimulus.

On the other hand, we have continued on Thursday to drop Iran for a US drone plane claiming to have entered its airspace, in contrast, US President Donald Trump when asked by reporters about the reaction to that order, "will see", after describing the order As a serious mistake and testified that the aircraft was within the territorial waters of international and did not enter Iranian airspace as Iran claims, as he put it.

Technical Analysis

Gold is opening higher today with a strong rally above the $ 1400.00 level and is trying to maintain stability above it, which supports our bullish outlook for the next few sessions as our next target is at 1433.60.

Therefore, we await further upside today supported by SMA 50, noting that the break of 1380.00 will stop the current rally and press the price to start a bearish correction over the intraday basis.

The trading range for today is among the support at 1390.00 and resistance at 1425.00.

The general trend for today is bullish.