EUR analysis 19.06.2019

The single currency of the European Union region fluctuated in a narrowly bearish range during the Asian session to see its sixth session rebound in nine sessions from its highest since March 22 against the US dollar on the eve of developments and economic data expected Wednesday by Eurozone economies and the economy. The largest economy in the world, including the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee in Washington.

At 05:05 GMT, the EURUSD dropped 0.04% to 1.1190, compared to the opening at 1.1194 after recording a low of 1.1187 and a high of 1.1202.

The markets are currently waiting for the euro zone's biggest economy to see the Producer Price Index (PPI), an initial index of inflationary pressures, which may reflect slowing growth to 0.2% versus 0.5% last April. Up from 2.5% in the previous April reading.

This comes ahead of the Eurozone economy as a whole showing the seasonally adjusted current account index, which could reflect a contraction of the surplus to € 23.2 billion from € 24.7 billion in March, in conjunction with the release of Italy's third-largest trade balance Which could also show that the surplus shrank to 4.55 billion euros from 4.63 billion euros in March.

European Central Bank Governor Mario Draghi delivered the concluding remarks at the ECB forum on central banks in Sintra. We would like to point out that, at the same conference yesterday, he said that the ECB is not targeting specific levels of the euro exchange rate. Lack of improvement requires action, explaining that inflationary pressures are still weak and are moving at a slow pace.

European Central Bank Governor Draghi also noted at the forum yesterday in Portugal that the EC will take more monetary stimulus steps unless growth and inflationary pressures in the eurozone improve, following the fact that interest rate cuts will continue to be one of the tools at the ECB. Monetary policy of the European Central Bank is ready to expand the stimulus.

On the other hand, US President Donald Trump expressed his admiration for him. "Mario Draghi just announced that more stimulus has come, which has led to the euro immediately falling against the dollar, making it unfairly easy for them to compete against the United States, They have been away for years, along with China and others. "This coincided with the June 18-19 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee in Washington.

Investors are eyeing the FOMC meeting, where interest rates are expected to remain between 2.25% and 2.50%, as markets look to reveal their expectations for growth, inflation and unemployment as well as the future interest rates for the three years Ahead of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's upcoming press conference later in the day.

US Federal Reserve Governor Paul Powell has already said that the Federal Reserve does not know how and when trade tensions will be resolved, noting that the Federal Reserve is taking seriously inflationary pressures for an extended period that may affect inflation expectations later, The Federal Reserve is abandoning its policy of patience and cutting interest rates on federal funds in the coming period.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD continues to fluctuate at critical support 1.1180 and remains above it so far, noting that Stochastic is showing a clear sell-off now, and is close to providing a positive cross signal on the daily time frame, supporting the chances of resuming the expected bullish trend for the coming period, which Its main targets start at 1.1265 and 1.1443.

Therefore, we will maintain our bullish outlook unless the 1.1180 level is broken and the daily closing below it.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.1130 and resistance at 1.1280.

The general trend for today is bullish.