EUR analysis 18.06.2019

The single currency of the European Union region fluctuated in a narrow upward range during the Asian session to see its rebound to its third-lowest session since June 6 against the US dollar on the eve of economic developments and data expected Tuesday by the Eurozone economies and the US economy in the world.

At 04:43 GMT, the pair rose 0.12% to 1.1232, compared to the opening at 1.1218, the pair's lowest during the session, while the pair reached a high of 1.1234.

The markets are currently looking for ECB's Draghi's talk at the ECB's central bank meeting in Portugal. Otherwise, investors in the euro area's largest economies are waiting for a statistical reading of confidence in the economy, which may reflect a contraction of 5.7 versus 2.1 last May.

This comes in conjunction with the release of a statistical reading of confidence in the economy of the Euro-Zone economies as a whole, which may also show the contraction of the contraction to 3.6 against 1.6 in May, also with the publication of the seasonally adjusted index of the trade balance of the euro as a whole, which may reflect shrinking Surplus to 16.4 billion euros from 17.9 billion euros in March.

Investors are also eyeing the economy of the euro-zone as a whole to release inflation data with the release of the annual reading of the consumer price index, which may reflect a stable growth of 1.2%, unchanged from the previous reading in May, compared with 1.7% growth in April Last April, and the core annual reading of the index itself may show a stable growth of 0.8% versus 1.3% in April.

Otherwise, we have followed at the beginning of this week German Economy Minister Peter Altmeyer expressed the importance of the European Union and the United States to start trade talks immediately, noting that the trade agreement between the EU and the United States should include the abolition of all tariffs on industrial goods, He also noted that China and Europe are economic partners, but they differ at the same time.

German Minister of Economy Altmeier noted that German companies need an equal market in China and that this will be discussed in Beijing later this week, adding that the intellectual property protection file should be discussed with China. He pointed out that Europe agrees with China that The importance of the continuation of the WTO to resolve trade disputes despite the recent US embargo on the Organization.

On the other hand, investors are currently looking for the US economy to release data on the housing market with the reading of the Construction Starts Index and Construction Permits for May, where we expect to see about 1,290 thousand building permits against 0.6% at 1,296K. April, as initial homes may show stability stabilizing little changed at 1,235,000 homes versus a 5.7% drop in April.

This comes in line with the launch of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee in Washington, which is expected to keep the interest rates between 2.25% and 2.50% for the fourth meeting in a row, as markets look to reveal the Commission's expectations for growth rates, inflation and unemployment in addition to To the future of interest rates for the next three years, before the events of the press conference of Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell on Wednesday.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD is showing more narrow fluctuation around SMA 50, and the pair remains stable above the 1.1180 support level, while Stochastic is entering oversold areas.

Therefore, we believe that opportunities are available to resume the expected bullish direction for the coming period, which depends on stability above the aforementioned support, while targets start to breach the 1.1265 level to confirm the rally towards 1.1443 as the next major station.

The trading range for today is expected among the key support at 1.1150 and resistance at 1.1310.

The general trend for today is bullish.