EUR analysis 06.06.2019

The single currency of the European Union region fluctuated in a narrowly bullish range during the Asian session to see its fourth session retreat in six sessions from its lowest since May 23, when its lowest since May 19 of 2017 was tested against the US dollar on the eve of the Developments and economic data expected Thursday by the economies of the euro zone and the US economy, the largest economy in the world.

At 04:23 GMT, the EURUSD rose 0.09% to 1.1231, compared to the opening at 1.1221, the pair's low during the session, while the pair reached a high of 1.1232.

The markets are looking ahead to the German economy's biggest reading of the factory demand index, which may show a slowdown in growth to 0.1% from 0.6% in March. This is before we see the end of the employment change for the Eurozone as a whole which may reflect Stabilized at 0.3%, unchanged from the first reading of the first quarter and the previous reading for the last quarter.

This comes in conjunction with the release of the seasonally adjusted GDP reading for the eurozone as a whole for the first quarter, which may reflect a widening stability of 0.4%, unchanged from the previous quarter's preliminary reading, versus 0.2% growth in the previous quarter, The index itself has a stable growth of 1.2%, unchanged from the previous preliminary reading and the previous annual reading for the fourth quarter.

To the ECB meeting at which zero interest rates could be maintained and the marginal lending rate stabilized at 0.25% with a negative deposit rate of -0.40% ahead of the upcoming ECB President Mario Draghi's speech.

The vice-president of the European Commission, Dombrovskis, said yesterday that the financial measures taken by Italy had damaged public funds. He explained that the disciplinary actions that Brussels is trying to take against Rome are justified. He said that Italy's recent political options were destructive to the third largest economy in the region And that growth has stopped almost there, adding that Italy has not complied with the standards and rules of debt imposed by the European Union.

On the other hand, the markets are currently waiting for the US economy to reveal the final reading of the productivity index and the cost of one work, which may show the stability of productivity growth at 3.6%, unchanged from the preliminary reading for the first quarter, compared to 1.9% in the previous reading of the last quarter, At 0.9%, also slightly unchanged from the preliminary reading, versus 2.0% growth in the previous quarter's reading.

This comes in conjunction with the reading of the index of claims for the week ending in early June, which may reflect the stability of 215 thousand requests, unchanged from the previous weekly reading, while may show the reading of the index of applicants for aid for the week of 25 May increase By 5 thousand applications to 1,662 thousand applications compared to 1,657 thousand applications in the previous weekly reading.

This is also in line with the release of the trade balance, which could reflect a widening deficit to $ 50.5 billion versus $ 50.0 billion in March, before we see the expected talk of FOMC member and New York Fed Chairman John Williams about the economy At the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.

This comes hours after the Beige Book report, which is important in being released two weeks before the FOMC meeting, followed by Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell earlier this week that the Fed would act appropriately to maintain the pace of growth The highest 2% and low unemployment rates in the US, explaining that he closely monitors the implications of trade tensions.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD touched yesterday's 1.1300 barrier but rebounded strongly to settle below the 1.1260 barrier, keeping our bearish outlook intact for the coming period, noting that Stochastic is currently beginning to cross negatively, posing a negative incentive to wait for the price to break. 1.1180 and opened the way to visit the 1.1100 level which represents the first major target of the suggested bearish wave.

On the other hand, it should be noted that the confirmation of the breach of 1.1260 will stop the expected decline and push the price for gains of 1.1350 and 1.1443 in the near term.

The trading range for today is expected among the 1.1140 support and the 1.1300 resistance.

The general trend for today is bearish.