AUD analysis 06.06.2019

The Australian dollar fluctuated in a narrow range slipping towards the Asian session to see its rebound for the second consecutive session of its highest since May 10 against the US dollar following developments and economic data that followed on the Australian economy and on the eve of developments and economic data expected on Thursday by The US economy is the largest economy in the world.

At 02:23 GMT, the AUDUSD dropped 0.07% to 0.6965, compared with the opening levels of 0.6970, after recording a low of 0.6964 and a high of 0.6973.

We have followed the Australian economy to reveal the trade balance, which showed that the surplus shrank to A $ 4.87 billion compared to A $ 4.89 billion in March, contrary to expectations that the surplus shrank to A $ 5.05 billion, From the first-quarter growth data, Australia's economy expanded 0.4% in line with expectations.

The Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate statement on Tuesday included a decision by the central bank's monetary policy makers to cut short-term benchmark interest rates by 25 basis points to 1.25% from 1.50%, which analysts had expected at the time. Also on Tuesday, Governor of the Central Bank of Australia Philippe Lowy is speaking at a Sydney Reserve Dinner party in Sydney.

On the other hand, the markets are currently waiting for the US economy to reveal the final reading of the productivity index and the cost of one work, which may show the stability of productivity growth at 3.6%, unchanged from the preliminary reading for the first quarter, compared to 1.9% in the previous reading of the last quarter, At 0.9%, also slightly unchanged from the preliminary reading, versus 2.0% growth in the previous quarter's reading.

This comes in conjunction with the reading of the index of claims for the week ending in early June, which may reflect the stability of 215 thousand requests, unchanged from the previous weekly reading, while may show the reading of the index of applicants for aid for the week of 25 May increase By 5 thousand applications to 1,662 thousand applications compared to 1,657 thousand applications in the previous weekly reading.

This is also in line with the release of the trade balance, which could reflect a widening deficit to $ 50.5 billion versus $ 50.0 billion in March, before we see the expected talk of FOMC member and New York Fed Chairman John Williams about the economy At the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.

This comes hours after the Beige Book report, which is important in being released two weeks before the FOMC meeting, followed by Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell earlier this week that the Fed would act appropriately to maintain the pace of growth The highest 2% and low unemployment rates in the US, explaining that he closely monitors the implications of trade tensions.

Technical Analysis

AUDUSD finds a good resistance formed by SMA 50 against positive price attempts, but since the price is above 0.6930, the bullish bias remains likely over the intraday basis, awaiting the test of 0.7044 before returning to the downside.

Keep in mind that a break of 0.6930 will halt the suggested rally and push the price back to resume the major descending wave again, with the first key target at 0.6707.

The trading range for today is expected among the support at 0.6945 and the resistance at 0.7044.

The expected general trend for today: temporarily bullish.