EUR analysis 06.04.2019

The single currency of the European Union region fluctuated in a narrow upward range during the Asian session to see its fourth session retreat since May 23, when its lowest since May 19, 2017 against the US dollar on the eve of economic developments and data Expected by the euro-zone economies and the US economy Tuesday, including Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech.

At 05:02 GMT, the EURUSD rose 0.04% to 1.1246, compared to the opening at 1.1241, the pair's low during the session, while the pair reached a high of 1.1258.

The markets are currently looking for France, the region's second largest economy, to reveal last month's treasury budget before the region's fourth-largest economy sees Spain's Unemployment Change Index, which may reflect a contraction of 67.0K versus 91.5K in April , And Italy's third-biggest unemployment reading, which could show a rise to 10.3% from 10.2% in March.

This comes before we see the economy of the region as a whole disclosure of inflation data with the publication of the preliminary annual CPI, which may reflect the slowdown of growth to 1.4% compared to 1.7% in April, and may show the core annual reading of the same index slowing growth to 1.0% Against 1.3%, in conjunction with a reading of unemployment rates for the region as a whole, which may reflect stability at 7.7%, unchanged from March.

Otherwise, markets are looking to the ECB meeting after Thursday, during which interest rates may be kept at zero levels ahead of ECB President Mario Draghi's expected talk.

On the other hand, investors are looking forward to introducing Fed Chairman and Federal Reserve Chairman John Williams to the opening remarks at the event hosted by the Bank of New York Federal Reserve before we see the upcoming talk of Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell about the Fed's policy strategy, tools and communication practices At the event hosted by the Chicago Fed.

Leading to the release of the factory demand index, which may reflect a 1.0% drop from 1.9% in March. This comes hours before the Beige report, which is important as it was issued two weeks before the FOMC meeting, The Federal Committee in their decisions and directions to stimulate and support the pace of growth and the US labor market in addition to achieving inflation target at 2%.

Looking ahead to the US labor market, preliminary data on the labor market are expected to be released on Wednesday with the release of the Change in Private Sector Index, which may reflect a slowdown in job creation to 185,000 jobs, compared to 275,000 in April. Hours before the disclosure of the monthly report of non-agricultural jobs and unemployment rates in addition to the average income per hour for the last month.

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD pair rallied yesterday to test the 1.1260 level and stabilize near it, maintaining its stability below this level so far, and note that SMA 50 is trying to pressure the price in a sign to return to the downside in the coming sessions.

Therefore, the bearish trend will remain likely over intraday and short term basis unless 1.1260 is breached and the daily closing is above it, noting that the break of 1.1180 will reinforce the chances of heading towards the first negative target at 1.1100.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.1150 and resistance at 1.1300.

The general trend for today is bearish.