AUD analysis 04.06.2019

The Australian dollar fell during the Asian session to witness a rebound to the second session of its highest since May 13 against the US dollar following developments and economic data that followed on the Australian economy and on the threshold of the decisions and directions of the Reserve Bank of Australia and developments and economic data expected Tuesday by the US economy and Including US Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell.

At 0210 GMT, the AUDUSD fell 0.16% to 0.6966, compared to the opening levels of 0.6977, after reaching a low of 0.6960, while the highest at 0.6978.

We followed the Australian economy to reveal the current account reading, which showed the deficit widened to A $ 2.9 billion in line with expectations for A $ 6.3 billion in the fourth quarter. In the same context, the reading of the net exports index of GDP 0.2% also compatible with expectations versus 0.2% decline in the fourth quarter.

This came in line with the release of retail sales, which showed a decline of 0.1% compared to 0.3% in March, in contrast to expectations of slowing growth to 0.2%. This comes amid the expectation of the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate statement in the expectation of a 25% To 1.25% from 1.50%, ahead of the upcoming speech by Governor of Central Australia Philippe Lowe at a Sydney Reserve Dinner.

On the other hand, investors are looking forward to Federal Reserve Chairman and Federal Reserve Chairman John Williams opening remarks at the event hosted by the Bank of New York Federal Reserve, before we see the forthcoming talk of Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell about the Fed's policy strategy, tools and communication practices At the event hosted by the Chicago Fed.

Leading to the release of the factory demand index, which may reflect a 1.0% drop from 1.9% in March. This comes hours before the Beige report, which is important as it was issued two weeks before the FOMC meeting, The Federal Committee in their decisions and directions to stimulate and support the pace of growth and the US labor market in addition to achieving inflation target at 2%.

Looking ahead to the US labor market, preliminary data on the labor market are expected to be released on Wednesday with the release of the Change in Private Sector Index, which may reflect a slowdown in job creation to 185,000 jobs, compared to 275,000 in April. Hours before the disclosure of the monthly report of non-agricultural jobs and unemployment rates in addition to the average income per hour for the last month.

Technical Analysis

AUDUSD has breached 0.6945 after yesterday's close, pushing the pair to continue its bullishness over intraday basis, and we expect a test of 0.7044 before resuming the downside move again.

Therefore, the bullish trend will be likely in the coming sessions unless the levels of 0.6945 and 0.6910 are broken and stability below it.

The trading range for today is expected among the support at 0.6945 and the resistance at 0.7044.

The expected general trend for today: temporarily bullish.