JPY analysis 31.05.2019

The US dollar fell significantly during the Asian session to witness its lowest since early February and prepare for the second consecutive weekly losses and monthly losses against the Japanese yen following developments and economic data that followed the Japanese economy, the third largest economy in the world and on the eve of economic developments and data Which is expected Friday by the US economy, the world's largest economy.

At 05:59 GMT, the pair was down 0.66% to 108.90 compared to the opening levels at 109.62, the pair's highest level during the session, while the pair reached its lowest level in nearly four months at 108.89.

We followed the Japanese economy to release inflation data with the Tokyo CPI reading, which showed a slowdown in growth to 1.1% from 1.4% in April, worse than expectations of a 1.2% slowdown in growth, The index itself, which excludes fresh food, has slowed growth to 1.1% from 1.3%, also worse than expected at 1.2%.

In the same context, the Tokyo Core CPI, excluding fresh food and energy, showed a slowdown in growth to 0.8% from 0.9% in April, above expectations of 1.0%, coinciding with the disclosure of labor market data for the world's third-largest economy Which fell unemployment rates to 2.4% in line with expectations, compared to 2.5% in March.

This came ahead of the seasonally adjusted retail sales, which showed stability at zero, versus 0.2% in March, in contrast to expectations for a 0.6% growth rate, while the annual reading of the same index showed slower growth to 0.5% With the previous annual reading for March and expectations at 1.0%.

We also followed the world's third-largest industrial manufacturing company for the preliminary reading of industrial production, which showed a 0.6% rise from 0.6% in March, beating expectations for a 0.2% rise. Compared to 4.3% in the previous annual reading for March, also outperforming expectations of a contraction of 1.5%.

To the housing market data, with a revised 5.7% rise in 931K versus 10.0% at 989K in March, worse than expectations for a 0.8% decline at 983K. In conjunction with the release of the Consumer Confidence Index, which showed a drop to 39.4 versus 40.4 in April, above expectations of 40.6.

On the other hand, investors are currently looking for the US economy to reveal their spending and personal income data, which may reflect a slowdown in personal spending growth to 0.2% from 0.9% in March, and personal income growth accelerated to 0.3% from 0.1% Core personal consumption expenditure rose 0.2% against stability at zero levels.

This comes ahead of the Chicago PMI reading, which may extend to 55.1 versus 52.6 last April, before the final reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index, which may reflect a contraction of the widening to 102.0 compared to the initial reading of the month May at 102.4 and 97.2 in April.

(FOMC) and Federal Reserve Bank of New York Chairman John Williams at the event hosted by the Bank of New York Federal Reserve, where he will deliver a speech under the title "Theory and Practice of Monetary Policy and Minimum Interest Rates," hours after the second reading of the output Gross domestic product the world's largest economy 3.1% during the first quarter last.

Technical Analysis

The USD / JPY pair has made more positive attempts but is fluctuating near 109.44, and as long as the price is below 110.08, our bearish outlook remains intact, and the price needs to break 109.44 to facilitate the move towards 108.80 which is our next main target.

We note that SMA 50 and Stochastic are negative factors supporting the bearish outlook.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 108.80 and resistance at 110.00.

The general trend for today is bearish.