Gold Analysis 13.05.2019

 Gold futures fluctuated in a tight range slipping towards the Asian session as the US dollar index rose, showing a rebound to its second session since April 18, according to the inverse correlation between the two economic data by the US economy, the world's largest economy. Market pricing for Beijing's response to the trade sentiment that Washington adopted at the end of last week. 

  Gold futures for June delivery fell 0.18% to currently trade at $ 1,284.50 per ounce from $ 1.288.30 an ounce, while the US dollar index rose 0.02% to 97.33 compared to the opening at 97.30. . 

Investors are looking forward to the talk of Federal Reserve Vice President and Federal Open Market Committee member Richard Clarda as he makes opening remarks at the event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank, and is looking for any hints that monetary policymakers are likely to cut interest rates on federal funds To stimulate the economy in the face of potential risks from trade protectionism.   

In another context, we went on Sunday, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlo said in an interview with Fox News that US officials expect the Chinese to avenge the lifting of tariffs by the administration of US President Donald Trump on goods and goods worth $ 200 billion to 25% from 10% last Friday, bringing China's customs duties 25% to about $ 250 billion.   

On the other hand, last Thursday, South Africa's statistics agency reported that gold production at the world's seventh-largest gold producer, the first until 2006, declined in March for the eighth straight month, down 21% from the previous year In February, down 18% from the same month in 2018.   

South Africa's statistics agency said the decline in gold output was due to a strike by members of the Association of Miners and the Construction Union, which began in November and ended in mid-April, Gold, which is the largest producer of minerals from local mines in South Africa.   

Experts at Standard Chartered Bank have recently expressed their expectation that gold prices will rise once again to last year's high of $ 1,365 an ounce, as prices close to oversold and retreated to the lowest level this year recently, amid reports that one of the main assumptions Which could support price recovery is the Federal Reserve's adherence to patience policy and its suspension of plans to tighten monetary policy and raise interest rates.   

According to experts, the default is based on the Federal Reserve's readiness for a possible recession by 2021, which could support the performance of safe haven gold, as they point to a surge in global central bank purchases and recent high demand for gold by China and India, By the price cycle, accordingly they expect prices to rise to $ 1,365 an ounce and that the average price next year is $ 1,375 an ounce. 

The price of gold fluctuates calmly to the near resistance line currently at 1291.00, and the price needs to breach this level to reinforce expectations for the continuation of the bullish intraday direction targeting 1302.60 as the next major station. 

 From here, we continue to favor the upside with the support of the SMA 50, noting that stability above 1275.30 is a key condition for achieving the awaited targets. 

 The trading range for today is among the support at 1275.00 and resistance at 1302.00 

 The general trend for today is bullish