Gold Analysis 03.05.2019

Gold futures fluctuated in a narrowly bullish range during the Asian session to bounce back to its second session since December 24 while still resuming weekly losses and losing its fifth weekly loss in six weeks as the index The US dollar, according to the inverse relationship between them on the eve of developments and economic data expected Friday by the US economy, the largest economy in the world, which includes the talk of members of the Federal Open Market Committee.

Gold futures for June delivery rose 0.09% to currently trade at $ 1,272.90 per ounce from the opening at $ 1,271.60 per ounce, with the US dollar index falling 0.01% to 97.82 compared to the opening at 97.83. .

Investors in the US economy are eyeing labor market data, which could show unemployment stabilizing at 3.8%, unchanged from March's previous reading, amid expectations that the average hourly earnings index will accelerate growth To 0.3% from 0.1% in March.

This comes in tandem with the Non-Farm Payrolls Index, which may indicate a slowdown in job creation to 181,000 jobs, up from 196,000 jobs in March, amid expectations that the trade balance index will reflect a widening deficit to $ 73.0 Billion compared to $ 72.0 billion in February, and the preliminary reading of the Wholesale Sentiment Index showed growth stability at 0.2%, little changed from February.

Leading to the final reading of the index of the Institute of Supply Services by Markit for the United States, which may reflect the stability of the widening at 52.9 compared to 55.3 in March, before the disclosure of the index of the Institute of Supply Service, which may show a wide to 57.2 compared to 56.1 in March , And we would like to point out, because the provision of services is important in the fact that the service sector in America represents more than two thirds of the GDP there.

This comes hours after the FOMC meeting in late April and early May in Washington, DC, in which the Fed's monetary policy makers agreed to stay at rates between 2.25% and 2.50% for the meeting The third in a row to go ahead with a reduction in bond buybacks before they are frozen by next September.

Experts at Standard Chartered Bank have recently forecast that gold prices will rise again to last year's high of $ 1,365 an ounce, as prices close to the peak of the sell-off and its decline to the lowest level this year recently, amid the statement that one of the main assumptions that have The recovery is supported by the Federal Reserve's policy of patience and its suspension of plans to tighten monetary policy and raise interest rates.

According to experts, the default is based on the Federal Reserve's readiness for a possible recession by 2021, which could support the performance of safe haven gold, as they point to a surge in global central bank purchases and recent high demand for gold by China and India, By the price cycle, accordingly they expect prices to rise to $ 1,365 an ounce and that the average price next year is $ 1,375 an ounce.

Technical Analysis

Gold is trading below the 1275.30 level. Stochastic is losing its positive momentum towards the overbought areas, supporting the resumption of the bearish correction, which controls intraday and short term trading, with the next target at 1253.20.

Therefore, we will continue with the downside bias unless the 1275.30 and 1282.00 levels are breached and stability above it.

The trading range for today is among the support at 1255.00 and resistance at 1282.00.

The general trend for today is bearish.