AUD Analysis 02.05.2019

The Australian dollar fluctuated in a narrowly bullish range during the Asian session to see its fourth session retreat in six sessions from its lowest since January 3 against the US dollar following developments and economic data that followed on the Australian economy and on the eve of developments and economic data expected Thursday By the US economy, the world's largest economy.

At 2:18 am GMT, the AUDUSD rose 0.13% to 0.7024 compared with the opening levels at 0.7015, after recording a high of 0.7029 while a low of 0.7011.

We followed the Australian economy to reveal housing market data with the new Home Sales Index released by the Housing Industry Association, which showed a drop of 0.1% from 1.0% in March. This comes hours before the reading of building permits, which may reflect Down 12.5% ​​from 19.1% last February, while the same year's annual reading may show a drop to 25.1% versus 12.5%.

On the other hand, investors expect the US economy to disclose the preliminary reading of the single cost of labor index, which reflects the slowdown of growth to 0.9% compared to 1.9% in the fourth quarter, while the preliminary reading of the productivity of non-agricultural sectors may show accelerated growth to 2.4% compared to 2.0% In conjunction with the reading of the index of requests for aid, which may show a decline of 10 thousand applications to 220 thousand applications during the last week last Saturday.

Leading to the release of the factory demand index, which may reflect a rise of 1.0% against 0.5% decline in February, before we see the release of the US Treasury Department's semi-annual report on international economic and exchange rates, (FOMC) held in late April and early May in Washington.

Fed monetary policy makers have agreed to keep interest rates between 2.25% and 2.50% for the third consecutive meeting as we move forward in reducing the reduction of bond buyback before freezing by September, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the committee would be patient about raising interest rates in the coming period.

In a press conference following the expiration of the Federal Committee meeting, Powell said that the US economy and the US labor market remain strong, noting that core inflation in the US remains below the Federal Reserve target of 2 percent, adding that there is no Now need to raise or lower the federal funds rate, while emphasizing the independence of monetary policy.

Technical Analysis

The AUDUSD finished yesterday's trading below 0.7044, to activate the bearish scenario over the short and short term, and we expect negative trades targeting the 0.6800 areas mainly.

Therefore, the bearish bias will be likely in the coming sessions unless the levels of 0.7044 and 0.7135 are breached and stability above it.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 0.6940 and resistance at 0.7070.

The general trend for today is bearish.