Gold Analysis 30.04.2019

Gold futures rallied during the Asian session to rebound to a fourth session in six sessions from its lowest since December 26 as the US dollar index fell for the third consecutive session from its highest since May 16, 2017 according to the inverse relationship After the economic developments and data that followed the Chinese economy, the largest consumer of metals globally and on the threshold of developments and economic data expected Tuesday by the US economy, the largest economy in the world.

Gold futures for June delivery rose 0.24% to currently trade at $ 1,284.80 an ounce, resuming a five-month low from the opening at $ 1,281.90 per ounce, amid a drop in the dollar index. The US Dollar was 0.05% to 97.81, showing a continuation of its bounce from the upside in nearly two years compared to the opening at 97.85.

We have followed the China Logistics and Procurement Federation (CFLP) survey of the Manufacturing and Service Purchasing Managers' Indexes for the world's second-largest economy and the second largest industrialized nation after the United States, which reported a contraction of the industrial sector to 50.1 from 50.5 in March, In contrast to expectations at 50.7, and the service sector shrank to 54.3 versus 54.8, well below expectations of 55.0.

On the other hand, investors are waiting for the US economy to read the Labor Cost Index, which may reflect a stable 0.7% growth, unchanged from the fourth quarter, before we see housing market data released with the S & P House Price Index May show growth accelerating to 0.2% from 0.1% in February, and the same year's annual reading showed growth accelerating to 3.7% vs. 3.6%.

Leading to the Chicago PMI reading, which could extend to 59.1 vs. 58.7 in March, before we see the Existing Home Sales reading, which may show a 1.1% rise from 1.0% in February, Reading consumer confidence, which could rise to 126.2 versus 124.1 in March.

This comes on the eve of the opening of the FOMC meeting in late April and early May amid expectations that Fed monetary policy makers will keep short-term benchmark interest rates at between 2.25% and 2.50% and work to reduce Cut bond purchases before they are frozen by September.

It is expected to see after the meeting of the Federal Committee, which is held today and Wednesday in Washington, the press conference of the Governor of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell, who recently said that the Committee will be patient about raising the rate of federal funds in the coming period, before the Committee retreat last month of its expectations To raise interest this year while maintaining its expectations of raising it once next year.

Standard Chartered's experts have recently forecast that gold prices will rise again to last year's high of $ 1,365 an ounce, as prices close to peak selling and falling to the lowest level this year recently, amid the statement that one of the main assumptions that The price recovery may support the Federal Reserve's adherence to the patience policy and its suspension of plans to tighten monetary policy and raise interest rates.

According to experts, the default is based on the Federal Reserve's readiness for a possible recession by 2021, which could support the performance of safe haven gold, as they point to a surge in global central bank purchases and recent high demand for gold by China and India, By the price cycle, accordingly they expect prices to rise to $ 1,365 an ounce and that the average price next year is $ 1,375 an ounce.

Technical Analysis

Gold is trading positively today after the SMA 50 test yesterday, so that the bullish scenario remains effective over the intraday basis, noting that our main objective is to test the 1302.60 level before determining the fate of the next short term trend.

The breach of the target will confirm the resumption of the main upside direction again, extending the positive targets around 1320.00 and then 1346.70, while breaching 1275.30 will stop the expected rise and press the price to return to the corrective correction.

The trading range for today is expected among the support at 1275.30 and the resistance at 1302.60

The general trend for today is bullish