Gold Analysis 29.04.2019

Gold futures traded in a tight range slipping during the Asian session, shrugging off the US dollar index for the second consecutive session of its highest since May 16 of 2017 according to the inverse relationship between them on the eve of developments and economic data expected on Monday by The US economy is the largest economy in the world.

Gold futures for June delivery fell 0.05% to currently trade at $ 1,287.70 per ounce, compared to the opening at $ 1,289.00 per ounce, while the US dollar index fell 0.08% to 97.97. The highest in almost two years compared to the opening at 98.03.

Investors are currently waiting for the US economy to release spending and personal income data, which may reflect a faster growth in personal spending to 0.7% from 0.1% in February, and personal income growth accelerated to 0.4% from 0.2% Personalized depreciation expenditures rose 0.3% against 0.1%, while the same year's annual reading may show growth accelerating to 1.6% versus 1.4%.

US growth data for the first quarter showed that the growth of the world's largest economy accelerated more than expected to 3.2%, easing markets' concern about the recent slowdown in global growth and boosting risk appetite as expectations of a global economy decline. In an impending recession, especially after China's economy, the world's second-largest economy, has outperformed its economy.

Markets are also looking to kick off the FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday in Washington amid expectations that Fed monetary policy makers will keep short-term benchmark interest rates at between 2.25% and 2.50% and move forward in reducing returns To buy bonds at $ 50 billion a month until September.

Before we see on Wednesday following the Federal Committee meeting in April and early May the press conference of the Governor of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell, who recently said that the Committee will be patient about raising the rate of federal funds in the coming period, before reviewing The committee last month raised its expectations for a rate hike this year while maintaining its expectations of a one-year hike next year.

Standard Chartered's experts have recently forecast that gold prices will rise again to last year's high of $ 1,365 an ounce, as prices close to peak selling and falling to the lowest level this year recently, amid the statement that one of the main assumptions that The price recovery may support the Federal Reserve's adherence to the patience policy and its suspension of plans to tighten monetary policy and raise interest rates.

According to experts, the default is based on the Federal Reserve's readiness for a possible recession by 2021, which could support the performance of safe haven gold, as they point to a surge in global central bank purchases and recent high demand for gold by China and India, By the price cycle, accordingly they expect prices to rise to $ 1,365 an ounce and that the average price next year is $ 1,375 an ounce.

Technical Analysis

The price of gold has breached the 1282.00 level after closing the daily candlestick above it, turning towards potential gains in the coming sessions, and is likely to target the 1301.60 level mainly.

Therefore, the upside will be expected for today, supported by moving above SMA 50, noting that a break of 1275.30 will halt the expected rally and bring the pair back to the downside correction.

The trading range for today is expected among the support at 1275.30 and resistance at 1301.60

The general trend for today is bullish