Gold analysis 26.04.2019

Gold futures traded in a narrowly bullish range during the Asian session to see a rebound to its fourth session since December 26, negating the positive stability of the US dollar near its highest level in nearly two years according to the inverse relationship between them on the eve of developments And economic data expected Friday by the US economy, the largest economy in the world.

Gold futures for June delivery rose 0.28% to currently trade at $ 1,282.60 an ounce, showing a four-month trough from the opening at $ 1,279.10 an ounce, while the US dollar index 0.02% to 98.14 compared to the opening at 98.12.

Investors are waiting for the US economy to reveal the preliminary reading of GDP for the first quarter, which may show the stability of the largest economy in the world at 2.2% unchanged from the previous quarter, while may reflect the preliminary reading of GDP measured in prices Over the last quarter quarter slowing growth to 1.3% versus 1.8% in the fourth quarter.

This comes ahead of the final reading of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index, which may reflect a widening to 97.1 compared with the April reading of 96.9 versus 98.4 in March, to the disclosure of the US Treasury Department's semi-annual report on International economic policies and exchange rates.

White House spokeswoman Sarah Sanders said Tuesday that US Trade Representative Robert Leitzer and US Treasury Secretary Stephen M. Moshin will travel to Beijing by the end of the month for another round of trade talks and meet Chinese Vice Premier Liu Hu, who will lead a Chinese delegation Will visit Washington for further discussions and trade talks on May 8.

On the other hand, experts at Standard Chartered Bank expect gold prices to rise again to last year's highs of $ 1,365 an ounce, as prices nearing the peak and falling to its lowest level this year, amid speculation that one of the main assumptions The price recovery may support the Fed's adherence to the patience policy and the suspension of plans to tighten monetary policy and raise interest rates.

According to experts, the default is based on the Federal Reserve's readiness for a possible recession by 2021, which could support the performance of safe haven gold, as they point to a surge in global central bank purchases and recent high demand for gold by China and India, By the price cycle, accordingly they expect prices to rise to $ 1,365 an ounce and that the average price next year is $ 1,375 an ounce

Technical Analysis

Gold is testing a fresh retest of the previously broken neckline of the triple top pattern at 1282.00, and the price needs to remain below this level so that the negative impact of this pattern remains effective, awaiting a resumption of the bearish bias and breaking the 1275.30 level to reinforce expectations of the continuation of the bearish correction.

Therefore, we will maintain our bearish bias unless 1282.00 is breached and stability above it, noting that the awaited corrective targets start at 1253.20 and extend to 1231.10 after the previous level.

The trading range for today is among the support at 1260.00 and resistance at 1290.00.

The general trend for today is bearish.