USDJPY Analysis 17.04.2019

The US dollar fluctuated in a narrow range slipping towards the Asian session to see its rebound from its highest level since December 20 against the Japanese Yen following developments and economic data that followed the Japanese economy, the third largest economy in the world and on the eve of economic developments and data expected Wednesday By the US economy, the world's largest economy.

At 05:50 GMT, the USDJPY dropped 0.02% to 111.98 compared to the opening levels at 112.00, after reaching the lowest level at 111.92, while the highest in four months at 112.17.

On the Japanese economy, the reading of the trade balance showed that the surplus widened to 529 billion yen from 335 billion yen in February, exceeding expectations of a surplus of 363 billion yen, while the revised trade balance showed a deficit With 118 billion yen against a surplus of 116 billion yen, the current reading better than the forecast of a deficit of 243 billion yen.

In the same vein, the annual reading of Japan's exports, the nerve of the world's third-largest economy, showed a 2.4% drop to 1.2% in February's previous reading, beating expectations of a 2.6% Imports rose 1.1% from 6.6% in the previous February reading, below expectations of a 2.8% rise.

This came before the world's third-largest industrial sector reported industrial data released with the final reading of industrial production, which showed growth slowed to 0.7% from February's preliminary reading and expectations of 1.4% versus a 3.4% drop in January. January, while the same year's index showed a widening of the decline to 1.1% versus 1.0% and the energy utilization rate increased 1.0% against a decline of 4.7%.

The Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said that monetary easing may be expanded if inflationary pressures are to be lost in his country, while inflation is still underpinned by strong conditions in the labor market, adding that there is no need to change the Central Bank's target. Of Japanese inflation at 2 percent, explaining that investment fund purchases are not to stabilize the financial markets.

Japan's central bank governor Kuroda also noted that exports are somewhat weak due to the slowdown in global economic growth, noting that capital spending is very strong and that he expects his country's economy to continue to grow moderately. He said earlier this week that Japan's economy slowed slightly during Recently, wage growth has been somewhat frustrating.

Kuroda said at the time that labor productivity in Japan registered faster growth than other developed countries, which weighed heavily on the performance of inflationary pressures. He pointed out that there is a rise in prices in the labor sector, which is labor intensive, amid speculation that the next step will reduce interest rates. The Japanese central bank has time to make a decision, adding that the yen is stable between 110 and 120 per US dollar and that the current levels are satisfactory.

In another context, the Japanese Economy Minister Motegi said on Monday during a press conference in Washington with US Trade Representative Robert Laitzer that the trade between his country and the United States "frank and good exchange," in response to US President Trump said recently that he changed Satisfied with Japan's trade surplus with his country of $ 69 billion and that he wanted a two-way deal to deal with it.

The comments were made by Japanese Economy Minister Motige after the launch of trade talks between Japan and the United States, which will continue until next Thursday, following the adoption of the United States under the administration of US President Trump commercial protectionism and the work of many countries to enter into trade negotiations with the Department Trump to avoid the outbreak of trade war.

On the other hand, investors are waiting for the US economy to read the trade balance, which may reflect a widening deficit to $ 53.5 billion versus $ 51.1 billion in January, before we see the final reading of the wholesale stocks index which may show Growth slowed to 0.4% from 1.2% in the February preliminary reading and the previous reading for January.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and Federal Reserve Bank of England Chairman James Pollard on economics and monetary policy at the Hyman Minsky Conference, hosted by Cool College in New York, before we see the publication of the Beige Book report, FOMC Meeting.

Technical analysis:

The USDJPY pair tested a fresh 112.14 level and rebounded from there. The bearish trend remains valid and likely over the intraday basis, supported by the negative cross that Stochastic is currently introducing, awaiting 111.25 and then 110.86.

We note that a breach of 112.14 will stop the suggested negative scenario and push the price to gain fresh gains of 113.10 in the near term.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 111.10 and resistance at 112.60.

The general trend for today is bearish.