Gold Analysis 17.04.2019

Gold futures fluctuated in a tight range slipping towards the Asian session to see their sixth session rebound since March 27, keeping the USD index down for the seventh session in 12 sessions from its highest since the 8th of the same month according to the relationship The world's largest consumer of metals and on the brink of economic developments and data expected by the US economy, the largest economy in the world.

At 03:55 GMT Gold futures for June delivery fell 0.06% to currently trading at $ 1,278.70 an ounce, showing stability near the lowest in three months compared to the opening at $ 1,279.50 per ounce, while the decline of the dollar index 0.10% to 96.96, resuming its bounce from the upside for more than a month compared to the opening at 97.07.

We followed the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) survey for China on the seasonally adjusted GDP for the first quarter of this year, which showed a slowdown in growth to 1.4% in line with expectations versus 1.5% in the fourth quarter. With little change from the fourth quarter, in contrast to expectations for a slowdown in growth to 6.3%.

We also followed the world's second-largest industrial manufacturing release, which showed an acceleration of growth to 8.5% from 5.3% in February's previous reading, beating expectations for an acceleration of growth to 5.6%. The annual Retail Sales Index Growth accelerated to 8.7% versus 8.2%, beating expectations of 8.3%, in conjunction with a drop in unemployment to 5.2% from 5.3%.

This came hours after the Chinese foreign minister said on Tuesday that the acceleration of government spending will support the performance of the second largest economy in the first quarter of 2019, adding that spending rose 15% in the previous quarter than in the first quarter of 2018, That the Government had begun to issue bonds for its main projects and that that expenditure had strengthened reforms in key areas and improved living standards.

On the other hand, investors are waiting for the US economy to read the trade balance, which may reflect a widening deficit to $ 53.5 billion versus $ 51.1 billion in January, before we see the final reading of the Wholesale Inventories Index, which may show a slowdown Growth to 0.4% compared to 1.2% in the preliminary reading for February and the previous reading for January.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and Federal Reserve Bank of England Chairman James Pollard on economics and monetary policy at the Hyman Minsky Conference, hosted by Cool College in New York, before we see the publication of the Beige Book report, FOMC Meeting.

Technical analysis:

Gold is trading around the 1275.30 level, and we note that the price has completed the formation of the three-way triangle pattern which shows its image, which puts the price under additional negative pressure. We expect the pair to push further declines during the coming sessions, noting that the following targets extend to 1253.20 and 1231.13.

Therefore, we will be waiting for further bearishness over intraday and short term basis, noting that a breach of 1282.00 could push the price to achieve some gains and test the 1302.60 areas again before any new attempt to decline.

The trading range for today is among the support at 1260.00 and resistance at 1285.00.

The general trend for today is bearish.