Gold Analysis 12.04.2019

Gold futures fluctuated in a narrow range slipping towards the Asian session to see their rebound for the third session since March 27, defying the decline of the dollar index for the sixth session in nine sessions of its highest since the eighth of the same month according to the reverse relationship On the eve of developments and economic data expected Friday by the Chinese economy, the largest consumer of metals globally and his counterpart the US economy, the largest economy in the world.

At 03:59 am GMT, gold futures for June delivery fell 0.08% to currently trade at $ 1,294.60 an ounce, showing a two-week rally from the top of the week at $ 1,295.80 per ounce, while the US dollar index declined 0.19 % To 96.98, adding that the rebound from the top has resumed in five weeks compared to the opening at 97.14.

The markets are currently looking ahead to the Chinese economy, the world's second-largest economy and second-largest industrialized nation, to unveil the March trade balance, which could reflect a surplus of 76.6 billion yuan ($ 5.7 billion), compared to 34.5 billion yuan Billion in February, amid expectations of a rise in Chinese exports and imports last month.

On the other hand, investors are looking ahead to the reading of the import price index, which may reflect a slowdown in growth to 0.4% from 0.6% in February, while the same indicator excluding oil may show stability at zero levels versus 0.1% The index's annual reading shrank to 0.7% from 1.3% in February.

This comes ahead of the release of the preliminary reading of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index, which may reflect a widening of the widening to 98.1 versus 98.4 in March as consumers forecast inflation for one year to come and five years ahead, until the US Treasury issued its half report Per annum on economic policies and the international exchange rate or known as the currency report of the US Treasury.

On Wednesday, the Fed unveiled the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting held on March 19-20, which focused on patience, monitoring of economic developments and data, with a gradual reduction in bond buybacks until September, Interest rates are between 2.25% and 2.50% in the shadow of stabilizing inflationary pressures near target.

Technical analysis:

Gold managed to confirm the breach of 1301.60 after yesterday's closing below it, reinforcing the expectations for the continuation of the bearishness over the intraday basis, awaiting the visit of 1297.06 which represents 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the bullish wave shown in the image.

The triangle structure is still in place, which means that its completion will press the price to extend the downside wave towards the areas of 1253.20 and then 1231.13 in the short term, bearing in mind that the continuation of the expected bearish trend requires stability below 1302.60 and above-below 1311.00.

The trading range for today is among the support at 1297.00 and resistance at 1305.00

The general trend for today is bearish