Gold Analysis 11.04.2019

Gold futures fluctuated in a narrow range slipping towards the Asian session to see their rebound for the second high session since March 27 as the US dollar index rebounded, rebounding to the second session of its lowest since 28 of the same month according to the inverse relationship between them after Economic developments and data that followed it on the Chinese economy, the largest consumer of metals globally and on the brink of developments and economic data expected Thursday by the US economy, the largest economy in the world.

Gold futures for June delivery fell 0.13% to currently trade at $ 1,310.30 per ounce, compared to the opening at $ 1,312.40 an ounce, while the US dollar index rose 0.04% to 96.93 compared to the opening at 96.89. 

We have followed the Chinese economy, the world's second-largest economy, to reveal inflation data, which showed the accelerated growth of inflationary pressures, with the annual CPI reading accelerating growth to 2.3% from February's previous reading and expectations of 1.5% The PPI accelerated to 0.4% from the previous reading and expectations at 0.4%.

On the other hand, the markets are currently waiting for the US economy to release the Producer Price Index (PPI), which is a preliminary index of inflationary pressures, which may reflect a rapid growth rate of 0.3% versus 0.1% in February, while the same index may show growth stability at 1.9 A little less than the previous year's reading for February.

In the same context, the core reading of the PPI may accelerate growth to 0.2% from 0.1% in February, while the core annualized reading of the same index may show a slowdown in growth to 2.4% from 2.5% in the previous reading, Which is expected to rise by 8 thousand requests to 210 thousand applications during the week of the sixth of April this year.

The ongoing jobless claims index may also show a rise of 18K to 1,735K in the last week on March 30, before Federal Open Market Committee members Richard Clareda and monetary policy at the top of the Institute for International Financial Policy in Washington.

This comes hours after the minutes of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee held on 19-20 March, which touched on patience and control of developments and economic data with a gradual reduction of the reduction of bond buyback until September, amid the reduction of the Commission's expectations for the pace Growth and raising its unemployment expectations, as well as its expectations of a rate hike this year, while the Committee kept its expectations of raising it once next year and then agreed to stay at rates between 2.25% and 2.50%.

Otherwise, we also followed yesterday the EU and UK leaders reached an agreement to extend the deadline for Britain's exit from the EU until the end of October. The President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, said that this development provides "an additional six months for the United Kingdom to find the best solution "ECB President Mario Draghi warned of downside risks as he said the euro zone's economic growth momentum was slowing after the ECB decided to stay at zero interest rates.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday revised its forecast for the world economy's growth rate for the year 2019 to its lowest in a decade to 3.3% from 3.5% in its previous forecast, while keeping its forecast for global growth next year 2020 at 3.6% With little change from previous forecasts, which has rekindled investors' concerns about slowing global economic growth.

Technical analysis:

Gold is trading above the aforementioned resistance area, but we note that there is a resistance line that is putting pressure on the price, so the possibility of forming the top triangle formation remains intact and the price needs to trade below 1301.60 again to resume the corrective correction.

Stochastic is showing negative signs now, which is a negative incentive that we expect to push the pair lower during the coming sessions. Therefore, we believe that opportunities are available for resuming the downside move today, with the next key target at 1275.30, while achieving a breach of 1301.60, below the 1312.00 level.

The trading range for today is expected among the support at 1280.00 and resistance at 1315.00.

The general trend for today is bearish.