10.04.2019
The pair is still trading flat in anticipation of the results of the Fed’s March monetary policy meeting. If they reveal the central bank’s intention to reduce interest rates due to the slower growth of the US economy, the demand for risk and commodity assets would be supported. In this case, the pair may continue moving down.
The price is below the lower Bollinger band, below SMA 5 and SMA 14. RSI is below the level of 50% and has reversed downwards. Stoch are in the overbought territory and indicate a downwards reversal.
Trading recommendations:
Sell the pair if it passes the level of 1.3315 with a possible drop to 1.3250, with a target level of 1.3250.
The US dollar fluctuated in a narrow bullish range during the Asian session to see its rebound to its second-lowest session since the beginning of April against the Japanese Yen following developments and economic data that followed the Japanese economy, the third largest economy in the world and on the eve of developments and economic data expected Wednesday By the US economy, the world's largest economy.
At 06:04 GMT, the USDJPY rose 0.04% to 111.19 compared with the opening levels at 111.14, after reaching a high of 111.23, while the lowest at 111.06.
We followed the Japanese economy to release inflation data with the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI), a preliminary indicator of inflationary pressures, which showed growth at 0.3%, unchanged from last February, in contrast to expectations of slowing growth to 0.2%. , While the annual reading of the index showed growth accelerated to 1.3% versus 0.9%, also surpassing expectations of a growth acceleration of 1.0%.
This came in conjunction with a reading of machinery orders index rose 1.8% against 5.4% in January, below expectations of a rise of 2.8%, and the disclosure of the annual reading of the bank lending index, which showed acceleration of growth to 2.4% compared to the previous reading for February, February, and expectations at 2.3%, to show the annual reading of the machinery machinery machinery demand index shrinking to 28.5% compared to 29.3% in February.
The Japanese government announced earlier this year a 10-day holiday from Saturday 27 April to Monday, May 6 next to Japan's celebrations of the rise of the new emperor to rule there during the official holiday, and that the crown prince will be crowned by the beginning of next May, and we would like to point out that this holiday, which will last six full working days, will be the longest in Japan's history.
On the other hand, the markets are currently watching the US economy to detect inflation data with the release of the consumer price index, which may reflect the acceleration of growth to 0.3% compared to 0.2% in February, and may show the core reading of the same index accelerated growth to 0.2% The annual reading of the index may also show growth accelerating to 1.8% versus 1.5%, while the core annual reading of the index may show growth stability at 2.1%.
This comes before we see the talk of Federal Reserve Vice President and Federal Open Market Committee member Randall Quarles on the Financial Stability Roundtable on the progress of moving to current prices of risk in Washington, to reveal the minutes of the Federal Committee meeting held on 19-20 In which he agreed to stay at rates between 2.25% and 2.50%.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) agreed at its last meeting to gradually reduce its bond buyback until September, as it lowered its growth forecast and raised its unemployment forecast, as well as its expectations of an increase in interest rates in 2019 from two times in expectations Prior to the meeting of 18-19 December last year, while maintaining its expectations of a one-time increase next year 2020.
Technical analysis:
The USDJPY pair was subjected to negative pressure yesterday to break the 111.35 level and complete the formation of a minor negative pattern that might push the pair to visit 110.66 before resuming the main bullish trend, noting that the price starts today with a bullish bias on its way above the broken support, Supports the continuation of the overall positive scenario.
Therefore, we will maintain our bullish outlook for the coming sessions unless the 110.66 level is breached and below it, with the next key target at 112.12.
The trading range for today is expected among the support at 110.66 and the resistance at 112.00.
The general trend expected for today is overall bullish.
Gold futures fluctuated in a narrow range slipping towards the Asian session to see their rebound for the second session since 28 March as the US dollar index rebounded, reversing its second session since the same day according to the inverse relationship between them on the start of the rally. The European summit in Brussels and the economic data expected on Wednesday by the economies of the euro area and the US economy is the largest economy in the world.
Gold futures for June delivery fell 0.11% to currently trade at $ 1,306.80 per ounce from the opening at $ 1,308.20 per ounce. The US dollar index rose 0.02% to 97.04 from the opening at 96.99.
Investors are looking to the upcoming European summit, which is expected to focus on the UK's exit from the European Union and to consider Prime Minister Theresa May's request to postpone her country's exit from the EU until the end of June. Discussing the trade negotiations of the Union with China and the United States.
On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump expressed his country's commitment to impose tariffs on European products supplied to the United States for $ 11 billion, saying that the World Trade Organization sees the EU's support for Airbus and its negative impact. On his country, adding that the Union benefited from trade with the United States for a long time and that it should stop soon.
This comes on the eve of the start of the European Central Bank meeting, during which interest rates could be kept at zero levels ahead of the forthcoming talk by ECB President Mario Draghi, who announced at the previous meeting a new round of long-term target refinancing "TLTROs" By September to March of 2021 with a two-year maturity of zero interest.
On the other hand, the markets are currently waiting for the US economy to release inflation data with the release of the consumer price index, which may reflect a rapid growth rate of 0.3% versus 0.2% in February. The core reading of the same index may also show a 0.2% The annual reading of the index may also show growth accelerating to 1.8% versus 1.5%, while the core annual reading of the index may show growth stability at 2.1%.
This comes before we see the talk of Federal Reserve Vice President and Federal Open Market Committee member Randall Quarles on the Financial Stability Roundtable on the progress of moving to current prices of risk in Washington, to reveal the minutes of the Federal Committee meeting held on 19-20 In which he agreed to stay at rates between 2.25% and 2.50%
Technical analysis:
The price of gold attempted to break through the resistance zone between 1301.60-1304.70 yesterday and failed to do so. Today, the movement within the gray zone started with a bearish bias, thus keeping the chances for resuming the expected bearish correction over the intraday basis supported by the negative cross Stochastic is now out of the overbought area, waiting to head towards 1275.30 which is our next main target.
From here, we continue to hold the downside for the coming period unless the pair settles above 1304.70, noting that the price constitutes a triple top pattern that supports the short term downside extension.
The trading range for today is expected among the support at 1280.00 and resistance at 1310.00.
The general trend for today is bearish.
The single currency of the European Union region fluctuated in a narrowly bearish range during the Asian session to see its rebound for the second straight session since March 27 against the US dollar on the eve of the European summit in Brussels and economic data expected on Wednesday by The economies of the euro area and the US economy are the largest economy in the world.
At 05:12 GMT, the EURUSD fell 0.02% to 1.1261, compared to the opening at 1.1263, after reaching the lowest level at 1.1256, while the highest at 1.1267
The markets are currently looking at the euro zone's second largest economy, with the Industrial Production Index showing a 0.5% drop from January's +1.3%, before we see the same indicator for Italy, the third largest economy in the region. Also showing a 0.5% drop compared to 1.7% in January.
This comes amid the anticipation of the markets for the launch of the European summit in Brussels, which is expected to focus on the UK exit from the European Union and consider the request of British Prime Minister Theresa May to postpone the departure of the country from the Union until the end of June, Trade negotiations with China and the United States.
Especially after US President Donald Trump on Tuesday via his official account on Twitter for the imposition of tariffs on European products being supplied to the United States of $ 11 billion, while addressing the fact that the World Trade Organization sees the European Union support of Airbus and its negative impact On his country, adding that the Union benefited from trade with the United States for a long time and that it should stop soon.
This is also on the eve of the launch of the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, at which zero interest rates could be kept ahead of ECB Governor Mario Draghi's announcement of a new round of long-term refinancing (TLTROs) Starting from September to March of 2021 with a two-year maturity of zero interest.
On the other hand, the markets are currently waiting for the US economy to release inflation data with the release of the consumer price index, which may reflect a rapid growth rate of 0.3% versus 0.2% in February. The core reading of the same index may also show a 0.2% The annual reading of the index may also show growth accelerating to 1.8% versus 1.5%, while the core annual reading of the index may show growth stability at 2.1%.
This comes before we see the talk of Federal Reserve Vice President and Federal Open Market Committee member Randall Quarles on the Financial Stability Roundtable on the progress of moving to current prices of risk in Washington, to reveal the minutes of the Federal Committee meeting held on 19-20 In which he agreed to stay at rates between 2.25% and 2.50%.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) agreed at its last meeting to gradually reduce its bond buyback until September, as it lowered its growth forecast and raised its unemployment forecast, as well as its expectations of an increase in interest rates in 2019 from two times in expectations Prior to the meeting of 18-19 December last year, while maintaining its expectations of a one-time increase next year 2020.
Technical analysis:
The EURUSD pair did not show any strong movement yesterday, to stay stable above 1.1243, so there is no change on the temporary upside scenario, which targets 1.1350 and could extend to 1.1443 before going back down again.
Note that Stochastic is approaching the oversold areas now, while SMA 50 and SMA 20 are posing a positive pressure on the pair, which may push the price to test the resistance in the coming sessions, taking into account that the break of 1.1235 then 1.1180 will stop the expected rally and push the price down again.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.1180 and resistance at 1.1350.
The expected general trend for today: temporarily bullish.
The Australian dollar fluctuated in a tight range slipping towards the Asian session to see its rebound for the second session in a row since March 21 when it tested its highest since the end of February against the US dollar following developments and economic data that followed the Australian economy And on the eve of developments and economic data expected Wednesday by the US economy, the largest economy in the world.
At 02:27 GMT, the Australian dollar was down 0.14% to 0.7114 compared to the opening levels at 0.7124, after reaching a low of 0.7112, while the highest at 0.7131.
We have followed the Australian economy to unveil the WISPAC Consumer Confidence Index, which has widened to 100.7 from 98.8 in March, on the heels of a recent talk by Assistant Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia in charge of Risk Management Committee Jay Debel on the state of the economy at the event. Sponsored by Adelaide Business.
On the other hand, the markets are currently waiting for the US economy to release inflation data with the release of the consumer price index, which may reflect a rapid growth rate of 0.3% versus 0.2% in February. The core reading of the same index may also show a 0.2% The annual reading of the index may also show growth accelerating to 1.8% versus 1.5%, while the core annual reading of the index may show growth stability at 2.1%.
This comes before we see the talk of Federal Reserve Vice President and Federal Open Market Committee member Randall Quarles on the Financial Stability Roundtable on the progress of moving to current prices of risk in Washington, to reveal the minutes of the Federal Committee meeting held on 19-20 In which he agreed to stay at rates between 2.25% and 2.50%.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) agreed at its last meeting to gradually reduce its bond buyback until September, as it lowered its growth forecast and raised its unemployment forecast, as well as its expectations of an increase in interest rates in 2019 from two times in expectations Prior to the meeting of 18-19 December last year, while maintaining its expectations of a one-time increase next year 2020.
Technical analysis:
AUDUSD is fluctuating within the ascending sub-channel above the moving averages, and it is difficult to continue to rise and break the resistance 0.7153, affected by the negative results from stochastic entering the overbought area, waiting for a positive incentive enough to push the price to resume the bullish trend targeting 0.7210 as the next major station.
In general, we continue to favor the bullish trend in the coming sessions unless the level of 0.7044 is broken and stability below it.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 0.7065 and resistance at 0.7180.
The general trend for today is bullish.
Aeroflot is moving within a sideways range between 95.78 and 99.94 in a sideways move.
At the beginning of this week, Aeroflot came back from the resistance 99.94 to return to the downside towards 95.68 support.
The price is currently exposed to negative bearish moving averages above the price and press it down.
The SMA 50 continues to be near the resistance at 99.94 with the Fibonacci retracement of 618% forming a strong resistance to the price.
Stochastic is in a bearish direction to increase negative pressure on the price and push it to test the support.
The general direction of movement is neutral.
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