Gold Analysis 08.04.2019

Gold futures fluctuated in a tight range in the Asian session to reflect their highest since early April as the dollar index fell for the third session in five sessions from its highest since March 8 according to the inverse relationship between them on the eve of developments and economic data expected Monday by the US economy.

Gold futures for June delivery rose by 0.35% to currently trade at $1,300.40 per ounce, the highest since the beginning of this month compared to the opening at $1,297.20 an ounce amid the dollar index fell by 0.10% to 97.27 levels resuming its bounce from its highest level in a month compared to the opening at 97.39.

Investors are looking to the US economy for the factory demand index. It may reflect a 0.5% drop from 0.1% last January. This comes hours after the release of labor market data which showed the stability of unemployment at 3.8% This was due to the acceleration in the creation of jobs in the non-agricultural sectors to 196,000 added jobs compared to 33 thousand added jobs.

In the same context, the average hourly earnings reading on Friday showed a slowdown in growth to 0.1% from 0.4% in February. It is worse than expectations for a slowdown in growth to 0.3%. US President Donald Trump criticized the weekend revived the Fed's policy calling on members of the Federal Open Market Committee to begin cutting interest rates on federal funds.

Markets are looking forward later this week to unveil the minutes of the March 19-20 Federal Committee meeting where interest rates were kept at between 2.25% and 2.50% as further cuts in bond buybacks Until next September, lower growth expectations, raise unemployment expectations, lower expectations for higher interest rates this year and maintain expectations of a one-time increase next year.

Technical analysis:

The price of gold is showing some bullishness with the opening of today's trading near the pivotal resistance test of 1301.60. It’s accompanied by the stochastic loss of positive momentum and the move within the overbought areas awaiting a rebound on the rebound to resume the downside correction. It’s the next target at 1275.30.

Therefore, we will keep our bearish bias intact if 1301.60 is not breached and breaching this level will stop the corrective correction and lead the price to regain its main upside move again, with its next targets at 1320.00 then 1346.73.

The trading range for today is among the support at 1275.00 and resistance at 1305.00.

The general trend for today is bearish.