EURUSD Analysis 04.04.2019

The single currency of the European Union region fluctuated in a narrowly bullish range during the Asian session to see its rebound to its third-lowest session since March 7 against the US dollar on the eve of developments and data economic outlook on Thursday.

At 05:22 GMT, the EURUSD rose by 0.07% to 1.1241 in comparison to the opening at 1.1233 the pair's low during the session while the pair reached a high of 1.1248.

The markets are looking at the biggest eurozone economies to see the factory demand index, which may rise by 0.3% from 2.6% in January. The seasonally adjusted annualized reading for the same index may shrink to 3.1% 3.9% in the previous annual reading for January.

This comes ahead of the release of the ECB's monetary policy meeting held on the March 7. The interest rates were maintained at current zero levels and the marginal lending rate stabilized at 0.25% while maintaining a negative deposit rate of -0.40. They announced a new round of long-term target refinancing (TLTROs) which will begin by September of this year until March 2021 with a two-year maturity of zero interest.

On the one hand, we have followed the statements of Jean-Claude Juncker, European Commission President, to the European Parliament in Brussels on Wednesday. He said the European Parliament would work until the last minute to avoid the exit of the United Kingdom without an agreement from the European Union. He added the member states of the Union and the Parliament were working on this. It has come a few hours after Donald Tusk, European Council President, expressed in his Twitter account the importance of patience and gave Britain more time to get out of the Union.

On the other hand, investors are currently waiting for the US economy to read the index of claims for the last week on March 30. It may reflect a rise of 4 thousand to 211 thousand applications compared to 211 thousand. The reading of the index of continuing assistance requests for the week ending 23 of last month is down by 6 thousand to 1,750 thousand applications against 1,756 thousand.

Technical analysis:

The EURUSD pair continues to fluctuate around broken support and remains below this level which constitutes a strong resistance at 1.1240 supporting the continuation of bearish expectations. It's shown in the chart above. It's notable Stochastic is beginning to shed its positive momentum.

Therefore, we will maintain our bearish outlook for the coming period. It's supported by the negative pressure formed by the SMA 50 with the reminder that breaking 1.1180 will open the way for a rally towards 1.1100 as a next stop. The stability below 1.1300 is an important requirement for the continuation of the expected decline.

The trading range for today is expected between 1.1140 and 1.1300 support.

The general trend for today is bearish.