EURUSD Analysis 01.04.2019

The single currency of the European Union region fluctuated in a narrow upward range during the Asian session to see its rebound to its second-lowest session since March 8 against the US dollar on the brink of developments and economic data expected on Monday by the Eurozone economies and the US economy. 

At 04:58 GMT, the EURUSD rose 0.13% to 1.1234, compared to the opening at 1.1220, after reaching a high of 1.1242 and a low of 1.1214.

The markets for the fourth largest economy in the euro area are looking for the release of the Industrial PMI, which could reflect a contraction of 49.8 versus 49.9 in February, before we see the same indicator for Italy, the third largest economy in the region, the contraction also widened to 47.6 versus 47.7 in February.

This comes before we see the final reading of the same index of industrial purchasing managers for both France and Germany, which may reflect the stability of the contraction at 49.8 in France compared to the expansion of 51.5 in February, and its stability at 44.7 in Germany compared to 47.6 in February, as The final reading of the same index for the whole euro area may show deflation stabilizing at 47.6 vs. 49.3 in February.

To see the reading of Italy's Unemployment Rate, which may reflect stability at 10.5% in February, before we see the whole region reading the same indicator, which may also show a stability of 7.8%, coinciding with the disclosure of the annual reading of the CPI Which could stabilize growth at 1.5%, unchanged from February, while the core annualized reading for the same index may show a slowdown in growth to 0.9% from 1.0% in February.

On the other hand, investors are currently waiting for the US economy to reveal a reading of retail sales, which accounts for about half of consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of US GDP, which could accelerate growth to 0.3% from 0.2% in January, while the core reading of the index itself may show a slowdown in growth to 0.4% from 0.9% in January.

The markets are also looking for the final PMI reading from Markit for the US last month, which may reflect the stability of the widening at 52.5 vs. 53.0 in February, before the ISI Manufacturing Index, which may show a widespread to 54.3 Compared to 54.2 in February, in conjunction with the January Wholesale Inventories reading.

Technical analysis:

The EURUSD pair is trading in a tight range and the SMA 50 is a continuous negative pressure against the price. The downside scenario will remain effective for the coming period, awaiting the initial test at 1.1180.

Therefore, we are waiting for negative trading for the day provided that the price remains steady below the level of 1.1300, with the reminder that exceeding the target level will extend the downward wave to reach 1.1100 as the next main target.

The trading range for today is expected between 1.1130 and 1.1300 support.

The general trend for today is bearish.