EURUSD Analysis 11.03.2019

EURUSD fluctuates in a tight range that tends to rise during the Asian session with the opening of the European session as the US dollar index fell for the second day in a row. Ahead of news and data on the eurozone and the US economy on Monday.

The EURUSD rose 0.08% to 1.1240 compared to the opening at 1.1232, after reaching its highest during the session at 1.1241, while achieving a low of 1.1222

German industrial production is expected to rise 0.4% from December's -0.4%, while the index's annual reading may decline to 3.3% versus 3.9%, in conjunction with the current account reading which may reflect The surplus shrank to 18.0 billion euros from 21.0 billion euros in December.

With the trade balance reading showing a surplus of 15.2 billion euros versus 13.9 billion euros in December,

The Eurogroup meetings in Brussels, attended by the President of the Eurogroup, the Ministers of Finance of the Euro-Zone Member States, the Commissioner for Economic Affairs, the Monetary and the ECB Governor, discuss several financial issues such as mechanisms to support the euro and government funding.

From the US economy, we expect to see the reading of retail sales, which account for about half of consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of US GDP, which may reflect stability at zero levels versus a 1.2% decline in December, while the core reading of the same index Up 0.4% versus 1.8%, before we saw a reading of business inventories, which could show a 0.6% rise from 0.1% last November.

Technical Analysis

The Euro started today positively above the 1.1232 support level, which was the previous low formed on 15 February. The EUR is supported by the MA 7 which is trading below the price and pushing it higher and testing the resistance level at 1.1257 where the MA20 resides.

The Stochastic is moving in a sideways downside trajectory as it is out of the overbought area and this is in contrast with the price movement and therefore is a sign of a general weakness in the price path so we are likely to see a fresh drop in the price.

The continuation of the bearish bias and the break of 1.1180 will put the price under negative pressure again, to head towards 1.1110 then 1.1000 as preliminary targets, while breaching 1.1270 will lead the price to further recovery and visit the level of 1.1420 mainly.

The trading range for today is expected between 1.1110 and 1.1310 support