AUDUSD Analysis 22.02.2019

The Australian dollar fluctuated in a tight range slipping towards the Asian session to see its rebound to its second low since February 12 against the US dollar, following hours of Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe's testimony before the Standing Committee of the Australian House of Representatives Economics in Sydney, The members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet in New York later Friday.

At 02:58 GMT, the AUDUSD rose 0.08% to 0.7098 compared with the opening levels at 0.7092, after reaching a high of 0.7115, while reaching a low of 0.7085.

Australian Reserve Bank Governor Philippe Lowe said the Australian Reserve released two weeks ago its Australian economy forecast for growth of 3 percent in 2019 and before growth slows to 2 percent by the next year 2020. The economy may be expanding Nearly three percent over the last year 2018, adding that those expectations are better than the previous forecast in August last.

He praised the decline in the unemployment rate, which stabilized last month at five percent, the lowest level since mid-2011, while keeping in mind the expectations of continued strength of the labor market and the decline of unemployment rates to four percent over the next two years, and inflationary pressures reported that it came less Slightly from the expectations of the third quarter and a quarter of last year due to changing government policies on childcare and falling gasoline prices.

In the same vein, he noted that inflationary pressures are expected to continue during the current quarter, noting that inflationary pressures are still above their two-year lows, and that they may see a gradual increase beyond the Australian Reserve's expectations by the end of 2020 to reach inflation target Of the Australian Central Bank at two percent, while addressing the global and domestic economic challenges that guide his country to the House of Representatives.

This comes hours after the minutes of the meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which was held on the fifth of this month, which approved the makers of monetary policy to stabilize interest rates at 1.50% for the twenty-eighth meeting in a row, which came in line with the expectations of analysts at the time, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Louis Nuh said the outlook for the interest rate was broadly balanced.

Which was then priced in the markets as cautionary comments from the Reserve Bank of Australia. "Over the past year, it was a scenario that the next step up is likely on the scenario that the next step is reduced, and today the odds are moderately balanced," he said. The labor market is stronger and more hawkish, as interest rates may rise, while any weakness in the labor market will hurt the Reserve Bank of Australia to reassess the situation.

On the other hand, investors are waiting for Federal Fed members to speak to Federal Reserve Chairman John Williams, who will be involved in a panel discussion entitled "Inflation Outlook with a High-Pressure Economy", before presenting the closing remarks of the annual meeting Joint Research on Quantitative Instruments for Macroeconomic and Financial Monitoring, organized by the Bank of Atlanta and Bank of New York.

Later, Fed Deputy Governor Richard Clarida will speak to us at the US Monetary Policy Forum on "Reviewing the Federal Reserve for Monetary Policy Strategies, Financial Instruments and Communications" before we see the participation of St. Louis Governor James Pollard and Deputy Governor Federal Randall Quarles at a panel discussion entitled "The Future of the Federal Reserve Balance Sheet."

This came hours after the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which was held on 29-30 January, during which Federal Reserve policy makers kept interest rates at between 2.25% and 2.50% Cut bond repurchase by $ 50 billion a month. The committee said it was determined to be patient and monitor economic data before resuming tightening monetary policy.

Technical analysis:

The AUDUSD broke the support of the bullish intraday channel that appears in the image, to activate the bearish scenario over the intraday basis, pending targeting the 0.7000 level mainly.

Moving below SMA 50 supports the expected decline, while stability below 0.7125 is an important condition for achieving the expected targets.

The trading range for today is expected among the support at 0.7000 and the resistance at 0.7140.

The general trend for today is bearish.