AUDUSD Analysis 21.02.2019

The Australian dollar fell during the Asian session to see its rebound from its highest since February 6 against the US dollar following developments and economic data that followed the Australian economy and on the eve of developments and economic data expected Thursday by the US economy, the largest economy in the world and the testimony of the Governor of the Bank of Australia Reserve Philippe Lowy before the Standing Committee of the Economy of the House of Representatives in Sydney.

At 02:42 am GMT, the AUDUSD fell 0.15% to 0.7154 compared to the opening levels at 0.7165, after reaching the lowest level at 0.7142, while the highest in two weeks at 0.7207.

On the Australian economy, the preliminary reading of the Industrial and Service Purchasing Managers' Index for the month of February was disappointing. We followed the contraction of the industrial sector to 53.1 versus 53.9 in January and the contraction of the service sector With a value of 49.3 versus 51.0 in January.

This came ahead of the release of Australian labor market data which reflected a stable unemployment rate of 5.0%, which is the lowest since mid-2011, in line with expectations, in conjunction with the reading of the employment change index accelerated the pace of job creation to about 39.1 thousand Compared to 16.9 thousand additions, in contrast to expectations that the growth rate slowed to about 15.2 thousand added.

This comes hours after the minutes of the meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which was held on the fifth of this month, which approved the makers of monetary policy to stabilize interest rates at 1.50% for the twenty-eighth meeting in a row, which came in line with the expectations of analysts at the time, Australian Central Bank Governor Philip Lowe said the outlook for the interest rate was broadly balanced.

Which was then priced in the markets as cautionary comments from the Reserve Bank of Australia. "Over the past year, it was a scenario that the next step up is likely on the scenario that the next step is reduced, and today the odds are moderately balanced," he said. The labor market is stronger and more hawkish, as interest rates may rise, while any weakness in the labor market will hurt the Reserve Bank of Australia to reassess the situation.

On the other hand, investors by the US economy, the world's largest industrial nation, are looking to release the Philadelphia Manufacturing Index, which may reflect a narrowing to 14.1 versus 17.0 last January, in conjunction with the February 16 Jobless Claims reading Which could reflect a drop of 11K to 228K versus 239K last week.

This comes in conjunction with the release of the Durable Goods Orders, which account for nearly half of consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of US GDP, which could reflect accelerated growth to 1.6% from 0.7% in November. The core reading of the index itself is up 0.3% from 0.4% in November.

Before we see the preliminary reading of the PMI index for the United States of America for the month of February, amid expectations of the expansion of the service sector to 54.4 compared to 54.2 in January, and the stability of the industrial sector at 54.9 compared to 54.8 With little change from what it was in January.

To the release of housing market data with the release of the existing home sales index, which may reflect a rise of 1.5% to 5.01 million, compared with 6.4% decline at 4.99 million in December, coinciding with the release of the leading indicators for the month of January Which could show a 0.1% rise versus a 0.1% decline in December.

This came hours after the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which was held on 29-30 January, during which Federal Reserve policy makers kept interest rates at between 2.25% and 2.50% Cut bond repurchase by $ 50 billion a month, and the committee said it was determined to be patient and monitor economic data before resuming tightening monetary policy.

Technical analysis:

The AUDUSD made a fresh attempt to breach the 0.7165 level but did not settle above it, remaining confined to the mentioned resistance and support at 0.7085, which keeps us neutral until we get a clearer signal for the next direction.

We will note that breaching the mentioned resistance will push the price to achieve positive targets starting at 0.7220 and extending to 0.7300 while breaking the support will put the price under negative pressure targeting the 0.7000 level initially.

The trading range for today is expected among the support at 0.7100 and the resistance at 0.7220.

The expected general trend for today: neutral.