Gold Analysis 20.02.2019

Gold futures rallied during the Asian session, their highest since April 19, as the US dollar index fell for the fourth consecutive session from its highest since December 17 according to the inverse relationship between them on the eve of developments and economic data expected on Wednesday by The US economy is the largest economy in the world and with the US-China trade talks in Washington.

Gold futures for April delivery rose 0.22% to currently trade at $ 1,347.00 an ounce, the highest in ten months compared to the opening at $ 1,343.90 an ounce, amid the decline of the US dollar index of 0.02% to Levels of 96.50 indicating a continuation of the bounce from the top in two months compared to the opening at 96.53.

Investors are looking for the US economy to reveal the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting held on 29-30 January during which Federal Reserve policymakers kept short-term benchmark interest rates at between 2.25% and 2.50% With a move to cut back bond purchases by $ 50 billion a month.

In a press conference following the FOMC meeting at the end of last month, Governor of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell noted that the Federal Reserve will be patient and monitor economic data as rising downside risks to the economy stem from global growth and financial market volatility, Explaining that the continuation of that approach will depend on the economic data during the coming period.

In the same context, the Federal Reserve Governor Paul said last Tuesday that economic data confirm that the US economy is in a good position and that unemployment rates are stabilizing at the lowest in half a century, with the fact that there are some groups in American society do not feel prosperous after , And that the reflection of interest movements on the markets takes some time, saying he did not see the risks of economic recession high.

On the other hand, we have followed last week, the Russian Ministry of Economy announced that the production of Russia's gold last year 2018 rise to 314.42 tons compared to 306.9 tons in 2017, less than a month after the World Gold Council statistics at the end of last month to Russia was the most gold-buying country in 2018 as it sought to reduce dependence on the US dollar because of US sanctions.

According to the World Gold Council, global central bank purchases of gold rose during the year 2018 to their highest level since 1967. Purchases rose to 651.5 metric tons, up 74% from 2017 at 375 metric tons, Of the countries to buy the yellow metal topped by Russia by 274 metric tons, which overtook China, the largest consumer of metals globally and inspire both Poland and Kazakhstan.

Global gold consumption rose to 4,345.1 metric tons last year from 4,159.9 metric tons in 2017. Retail investment in bullion and gold coins rose 4 percent to 1,090.2 metric tons, supported by Iran's demand increase of 222 percent to 62 metric tons, Demand for jewelry has stabilized at around 2,200 metric tons with increased consumption compensation in both China, the United States and Russia for lower demand from the Middle East and India.

In contrast, the demand for financial institutions fell by 67% from the year 2017, when the world supply of gold increased 1% to a total of 4,490.2 metric tons in 2018. The gold futures contracts last month made the fourth monthly gain, respectively, illustrated Has seen its longest monthly gains since late 2010, after ending its longest monthly loss march since late 1996.

Technical Analysis

Gold is able to reach the target of the awaited first resistance of the ascending channel that appears in the picture. Some slight bearishness is now being affected by Stochastic negativity, awaiting a positive catalyst that supports the chances of resuming the bullish wave which is next target at 1365.05.

SMA 50 continues to support the pair from the bottom, to continue the bullishness of the day, noting that a break of 1336.50 might push the price lower towards the 1320.00 zones and then 1310.00 before any new attempt to rise.

The trading range for today is among the support at 1330.00 and resistance at 1365.00

The general trend for today is bullish