Gold Analysis 19.02.2019

Gold futures rose during the Asian session to witness the highest since April 20, shedding the dollar index for the first time in four sessions according to the inverse relationship between them on the eve of developments and economic data expected Tuesday by the US economy, the largest economy in the world and central Looking forward to completing the China-US trade talks in Washington.

Gold futures for April delivery rose 0.21% to currently trade at $ 1,327.80 per ounce, the highest in ten months compared to the opening at $ 1,325.00 an ounce, while the dollar index rose 0.06% Levels of 96.87 compared to the opening at 96.81.

Investors are eyeing the US economy for a housing index reading by the National Association of Home Builders, which may reflect a widening to 59 versus 58 in January. We also look forward Wednesday to unveil the minutes of the FOMC meeting held on 29-30 of Last month in which the members of the committee approved the stabilization of interest rates between 2.25% and 2.50% and move forward in reducing bond buybacks.

In a press conference following the FOMC meeting at the end of last month, Governor of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell noted that the Federal Reserve will be patient and monitor economic data as rising downside risks to the economy stem from global growth and financial market volatility, Explaining that the continuation of that approach will depend on the economic data during the coming period.

In the same context, the Federal Reserve Governor Paul said last Tuesday that economic data confirm that the US economy is in a good position and that unemployment rates are stabilizing at the lowest in half a century, with the fact that there are some groups in American society do not feel prosperous after , And that the reflection of interest movements on the markets takes some time, saying he did not see the risks of economic recession high.

On the other hand, we have followed last week, the Russian Ministry of Economy announced that the production of Russia's gold last year 2018 rise to 314.42 tons compared to 306.9 tons in 2017, less than a month after the World Gold Council statistics at the end of last month to Russia was the most gold-buying country in 2018 as it sought to reduce dependence on the US dollar because of US sanctions.

According to the World Gold Council, global central bank purchases of gold rose during the year 2018 to their highest level since 1967. Purchases rose to 651.5 metric tons, up 74% from 2017 at 375 metric tons, Of the countries to buy the yellow metal topped by Russia by 274 metric tons, which overtook China, the largest consumer of metals globally and inspire both Poland and Kazakhstan.

Global gold consumption rose to 4,345.1 metric tons last year from 4,159.9 metric tons in 2017. Retail investment in bullion and gold coins rose 4 percent to 1,090.2 metric tons, supported by Iran's demand increase of 222 percent to 62 metric tons, Demand for jewelry has stabilized at around 2,200 metric tons with increased consumption compensation in both China, the United States and Russia for lower demand from the Middle East and India.

In contrast, the demand for financial institutions fell by 67% from the year 2017, when the world supply of gold increased 1% to a total of 4,490.2 metric tons in 2018. The gold futures contracts last month made the fourth monthly gain, respectively, illustrated Has seen its longest monthly gains since late 2010, after ending its longest monthly loss march since late 1996.

Technical Analysis

The price of gold shows sideways and narrow range trading around 1325.00, where the price is affected by stochastic negativity, awaiting the release of negative momentum and gaining a positive momentum enough to push the price to resume the expected bullish wave for the coming period, which is organized inside the ascending channel shown in the image.

SMA 50 continues to support the pair from the bottom, to continue the bullishness for today, provided stability above 1314.00 and 1307.00 while waiting to target the levels of 1347.50 and 1365.05 as the next major stations.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1310.00 and resistance at 1347.00

Support and resistance:

Support: 1317.24-1314.04-1306.04

Resistance: 1326.34-1338.70

The general trend for today is bullish