AUDUSD Analysis 19.02.2019

The Australian dollar fluctuated in a tight range slipping towards the greenback during the Asian session against the US dollar to see its rebound for the second consecutive session of its highest since February 6 following the economic developments and data that followed on the Australian economy and on the eve of developments and economic data expected on Tuesday by the US economy.

At 02:15 GMT, the Australian dollar fell 0.08% to 0.7124 compared to the opening levels of 0.7130, after recording a low of 0.7115, while the highest level at 0.7144.

We have followed the Australian economy to disclose the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia's meeting held on the 5th of this month, in which the monetary policymakers agreed to set interest rates at 1.50% for the 28th meeting in a row, which was in line with analysts' expectations at the time, Australian Central Bank Governor Philip Lowe said the outlook for the interest rate was broadly balanced.

Which was then priced in the markets as cautionary comments from the Reserve Bank of Australia. "Over the past year, it was a scenario that the next step up is likely on the scenario that the next step is reduced, and today the odds are moderately balanced," he said. The labor market is stronger and more hawkish, as interest rates may rise, while any weakness in the labor market will hurt the Reserve Bank of Australia to reassess the situation.

On the other hand, investors are looking ahead to the US housing index to be released by the National Association of Home Builders, which may reflect a widening to 59 versus 58 in January. Markets are looking forward Wednesday to unveil the minutes of the last FOMC meeting, in which the members of the Committee approved the stabilization of interest rates between 2.25% and 2.50% and proceeded to reduce bond repurchases.

Technical analysis:

AUDUSD traded lower after touching the bullish sub-channel shown in the image to break the 0.7135 level and settle below it. We believe that the channel is forming a bearish continuation pattern, which means that a break of 0.7085 will do the negative impact of this pattern and pressure the price to fall towards zones initially 0.7000.

On the other hand, Stochastic is showing positive signs that may protect the price from further losses, which makes it preferable to stop neutral temporarily until the price confirms the breach of the mentioned support or break the resistance at 0.7165, noting that breaching this resistance will push the price for gains up to 0.7220 and 0.7300 respectively.

The trading range for today is expected among the support at 0.7050 and the resistance at 0.7165.

The expected general trend for today: neutral.