Gold Analysis 12.02.2019

Gold futures fluctuated in a narrowly bullish range during the Asian session amid the decline of the US dollar index, rebounding to the second session of the highest since December 18 according to the inverse relationship between them amid a lack of economic data earlier this week by the US economy The world's largest economy and looking forward to the third round of trade talks between Washington and Beijing.

At 03:22 am GMT Gold futures futures for delivery of 15 April next 0.03% to currently trading at $ 1,312.00 per ounce compared to the opening at $ 1,311.60 an ounce, amid the decline of the US dollar index 0.06% to levels of 97.01, ending the longest march A daily gain since November of 2016 compared to the opening at 97.06.

Investors are now looking to Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell to speak at the Hope Foundation's Rural Policy Forum in Mississippi under the title Economic Development in High-Poverty Rural Communities. Markets are also looking forward to what the US Republican Administration's negotiations with Congress, which holds a majority of Democrats About funding the border security program to avoid a new partial closure of the federal government.

In addition, investors are also eyeing the outcome of the third round of trade talks between the world's top economists, with US Treasury Secretary Stephen Menuchin and US Trade Representative Robert Laetzer heading to Beijing to resume trade talks later this week. As part of efforts by both parties to avoid a trade war.

US President Donald Trump recently stated that he did not intend to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping before the March 11 deadline for a trade deal between Washington and Beijing, which renewed concerns about the return of tariffs on Chinese goods worth 200 million dollars $ 25 billion and raise it to 25%, if no agreement is reached to extend the existing truce between them.

On the other hand, the statistics of the World Gold Council at the end of last month to the rise of purchases of global central banks of gold in 2018 to their highest level since 1967, where purchases rose to 651.5 metric tons, up 74% from what it was in 2017 when it reached (374 metric tons), with the demand of many countries to purchase the yellow metal topped by Russia by 274 metric tons, which surpassed China, the world's largest consumer of metals, and inspire both Poland and Kazakhstan.

Global gold consumption rose to 4,345.1 metric tons last year from 4,159.9 metric tons in 2017. Retail investment in bullion and gold coins rose 4 percent to 1,090.2 metric tons, supported by Iran's demand increase of 222 percent to 62 metric tons, Demand for jewelry has stabilized at around 2,200 metric tons with increased consumption compensation in both China, the United States and Russia for lower demand from the Middle East and India.

In contrast, the demand for financial institutions fell by 67% from the year 2017, when the world supply of gold increased 1% to a total of 4,490.2 metric tons in 2018. The gold futures contracts last month made the fourth monthly gain, respectively, illustrated Has seen its longest monthly gains since late 2010, after ending its longest monthly loss march since late 1996.

Technical Analysis

The price of gold continues to gradually decline within the intraday channel shown in the image, approaching our first target, which now rises to 1299.00, waiting to break this level towards 1286.70 as the next major station.

Moving below the SMA 50 supports the expected decline, while the breach of 1316.65 is the key to turning the intraday upside path towards a gain starting at 1340.00 and extending to 1365.05.

The trading range for today is among the support at 1286.00 and resistance at 1320.00

Support and Resistance:

Support: 1301.00-1294.67-1286.70

Resistance: 1308.90-1316.52-1321.65

The general trend for today is bearish