Gold Analysis 05.02.2019

Gold futures fluctuated in a narrowly bullish range during the Asian session, shrugging off the dollar's fourth straight session, its lowest level since January 10, according to the inverse relationship between them following the decisions and directions of the Reserve Bank of Australia and on the eve of economic developments and data Expected Tuesday by the US economy, the world's largest economy.

Gold futures for April delivery rose 0.15% to currently trade at $ 1,318.50 per ounce, compared with the opening at $ 1,316.80 per ounce, while the US dollar index rose 0.01% to 95.84, showing a rebound from its lowest in nearly a month compared to the opening at 95.83.

We followed the decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia during the February 5 meeting to keep short-term benchmark interest rates unchanged at 1.50% for the 28th consecutive meeting, as expected in the markets, with the disclosure of the bank's monetary policy statement, This comes on the eve of the forthcoming speech of Governor of Central Bank of Australia Philip Lo at the National Press Club in Sydney on Wednesday.

Otherwise, investors are currently looking for the US economy to release the final reading of the index of the Institute of Service Providers by Markit for the United States, which may reflect the stability of the breadth at 54.2 compared to 54.4 in December, before the disclosure of the index of the Institute of Service Suppliers, which may appear The gap narrowed to 57.2 from 57.6 in December, and we would like to point out that service delivery is important because the service sector in America represents more than two-thirds of GDP.

On the other hand, the World Gold Council's statistics last week pointed to the global purchases of gold by the global central banks in 2018 to their highest level since 1967. Purchases rose to 651.5 metric tons, up 74% from 2017 to 375 tons Metric tonnes, with many countries buying gold, topped by Russia, at 274 metric tons, which surpassed China, the world's largest consumer of metals, and inspire both Poland and Kazakhstan.

Global gold consumption rose to 4,345.1 metric tons last year from 4,159.9 metric tons in 2017. Retail investment in bullion and gold coins rose 4 percent to 1,090.2 metric tons, supported by Iran's demand increase of 222 percent to 62 metric tons, Demand for jewelry has stabilized at around 2,200 metric tons with increased consumption compensation in both China, the United States and Russia for lower demand from the Middle East and India.

In contrast, the demand for financial institutions fell by 67% from the year 2017, when the world supply of gold increased 1% to a total of 4,490.2 metric tons in 2018. The gold futures contracts last month made the fourth monthly gain, respectively, illustrated Has seen its longest monthly gains since late 2010, after ending its longest monthly loss march since late 1996

Technical Analysis

The price of gold is slightly positive after the SMA 50 test yesterday, reaching the pivotal resistance of 1316.65 now, accompanied by the stochastic loss of the positive momentum markedly and approaching the areas of overbought areas, which is a negative factor we expect to press the price to drop again, The negative scenario is valid for the coming period, awaiting targets targeting 1296.00 and then 1286.70 mainly.

Keep in mind that a breach of 1316.65 and stability above it will stop the expected decline and lead the price to resume the short term bullish trend, which has the next target at 1335.00.

The trading range for today is among the support at 1295.00 and resistance at 1325.00

Support and resistance:

Support: 1310.17-1302.50-1293.60

Resistance: 1316.65-1321.65-1333.78

The general trend for today is bearish