Gold Analysis 20.12.2018

Gold futures traded in a tight range in the Asian session as the dollar index fell for a third session in five sessions from its highest since June 17, 2017, according to the inverse relationship between them on the eve of developments and economic data expected on Thursday by The US economy is the largest economy in the world.

Gold futures for February delivery rose 0.10% to currently trade at $ 1,248.20 per ounce, compared to the opening at $ 1,247.00 an ounce, with the US dollar index falling 0.04% to 96.95 from the opening at 96.99. .

Investors looking for the US economy are reading the Philadelphia Industrial Index, which may reflect a widening to 15.6 from 12.9 last month, with the weekly reading of the index showing a rise in the index of aid applications before we see the release of leading indicators which may show stability at zero levels against the high 0.1% last October.

This comes hours after the FOMC meeting of 18-19 December and the press conference held by Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell in Washington following the Committee's decision to raise interest rates by 25 basis points for the fourth time this year to 2.25% And 2.50% and move forward in reducing the repurchase of government bonds and mortgage bonds by $ 50 billion per month.

The downside risks to the economy have increased recently as global growth slowed and financial markets fluctuated, but these changes did not have a strong impact on the FOMC's expectations. The outlook for the economy continued to grow at a strong pace and inflation stabilized near target 2%, he said. Does not depend on predefined tracks and changes according to economic developments. This came after the Federal Commission lowered its average forecast for growth, inflation, the future of interest rates and raised the average forecast for unemployment rates for the next three years.

Technical Analysis

Gold was forced to rebound after testing the 1260.00 barrier, just a few points ahead of our main target at 1262.50, to test the 50 SMA which is good support for the price, Accompanied by a stochastic signal giving a bearish intersection signal.

Therefore, we believe that opportunities are available for a bullish rebound and resumption of the upside over the intraday basis within the corrective correction channel, with a reminder that breaching the target will extend gold gains to 1286.70, while a break of 1238.30 will halt the expected rally and press the pair to reverse.

The trading range for today is among the support at 1235.00 and resistance at 1265.00

Support and resistance:

Support: 1238.4-1227.3-1221.8

Resistance: 1251.2-1257.0-1262.8

The general trend for today is bullish