EURUSD Analysis 17.12.2018

The single currency of the European Union region fell during the US session to its lowest level since November 28 and is poised to resume its weekly loss for the third week in four weeks against the US dollar following developments and economic data that followed on Friday the economies of the eurozone and the US economy. In the world, which included the summit of euro zone leaders in Brussels.

Germany's largest economy followed the reading of the wholesale price index, which showed a slower pace of growth to 0.2% from 0.3% in October, before we saw the initial reading of France's service and industrial PMI, which showed contraction of the sector Industrial at 49.7 versus 49.6 versus 50.8 and 55.1 in November, worse than expected at 50.7 and 54.8.

European Commission President John Claude Juncker said that the European Commission will make all preparations for the exit scenario of the United Kingdom without an agreement from the European Union and that all information on this matter will be published on the 19th of this month, adding that there will be no legal obligations to the European Union as a result of Britain's exit from him.

Junker also noted that despite major efforts by British Prime Minister Teresa Mae that she has not succeeded in achieving practical results within the British Parliament about the issue of Britain's exit from the European Union, adding that the European Commission does not want the UK to feel that there may be any chance To re-negotiations, and explained that the European Commission may provide some clarifications on the agreement, but there will be no further negotiations.

In another context, the Deputy Governor of the European Central Bank, Luis de Guindos that the European Central Bank needs to be cautious in the coming period and that the movement of markets with central policies, adding that the European Central to prepare for all possibilities, while European Central Bank member Iwald Novotni noted that the risks On the outlook for growth in the eurozone is still balanced and that the ECB sees inflation going towards the target.

This came hours after the ECB meeting, during which the interest rate was maintained at current zero levels and the marginal lending rate stabilized at 0.25% while maintaining a negative deposit rate of -0.40% amid the confirmation of the expiry of the quantitative easing program by the end of the month In addition to the press conference of ECB Governor Mario Draghi, which follows the meeting.

ECB Governor Mario Draghi noted that the European Central Bank expects interest rates to stabilize at zero levels until at least the summer of 2019 or later in line with the need for inflation to stabilize near the target in the near term. In future periods, adding that the economies of the euro area still needs to continue some degree of expansionary monetary policy.

On the other hand, we followed the US economy to reveal the reading of retail sales, which account for about half of consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of US gross domestic product, which showed slowing growth to 0.2% versus 1.1% in October, The core reading of the same index also showed a slowdown in growth to 0.2% in line with expectations versus 1.0% in October.

This came before the world's largest industrial producer saw the reading of the Industrial Production Index, which showed a rise to 0.6% from 0.2% in October, beating expectations of a 0.3% rise. Growth to 78.5% versus 78.1% in October, below expectations that accelerated growth to 78.6%.

To reach 53.4 compared to the preliminary reading of the current month and expectations at 54.7 compared to 55.4 in November. The industrial sector shrank to 53.9 from 55.3, worse than expected at 55.1, Versus 55.4, before we see the growth of wholesale stocks accelerating to 0.6% in line with expectations and 0.5%.

Technical Analysis

The EUR / USD pair attempted to breach the 1.1300 level last Friday but could not close the daily candle below it, but it is now floating around, but we note that the SMA 50 continues to pressure the pair negatively, so the bearish bias remains likely in the coming sessions. 1.1181.

The continuation of the downside move depends on the stability below 1.1443, as a breach will push the price to achieve positive targets starting at 1.1550 then 1.1705 in the near term.

The trading range for today is expected between 1.1200 and 1.1400 resistance

Support and resistance:

Support: 1.1300-1.1210-1.1180

Resistance: 1.1386-1.1443-1.1500

The general trend for today is bearish