EURUSD Analysis 30.11.2018

The single currency of the European Union region fluctuated in a tight range, rising in the US session to see its rebound for the second straight session since November 14 against the US dollar following developments and economic data that followed Thursday on the economies of the euro area and the US economy. Citing the disclosure of the minutes of the meeting of the Federal Committee held on the seventh and eighth of this month.

Germany's consumer price index slowed to 2.3% from 2.5% in October, below expectations of 2.4%. The preliminary annual CPI reading for Spain, the fourth-largest economy in the euro-zone, also showed growth slowing to 1.7% versus 2.3%. In October, worse than expected at 2.0%.

Leading to a reading of Germany's Unemployment Change Index, which showed a drop to 16,000 from 12K in October, in contrast to expectations that the decline would be reduced to 10,000, the release of the ECB's semi-annual financial stability review report, Otherwise, the EU's chief negotiator Michel Barnier has noted that it is in theory to ratify the UK exit agreement from the EU.

On the other hand, we followed the US economy to reveal personal income and expenditure data, which showed that personal spending growth accelerated to 0.6% from 0.2% in September, beating expectations for a 0.4% growth. Personal income reading showed accelerated growth to 0.5% versus 0.2% in September, also surpassing forecasts for 0.4% growth.

In the same context, we also followed the largest economy in the world reading the personal consumption expenditure index, which showed a slowdown of growth to 0.1% compared to the previous September and expectations of 0.2%, and the annual reading of the same index slowed growth to 1.8% compared to reading Annualized for the month of September and expectations at 1.9%.

This came in conjunction with the reading of the index of requests for aid for the week ending on 24 of this month, which showed a rise of 10 thousand applications to 234 thousand applications in the previous weekly reading, contrary to expectations at 221 thousand requests, as indicated by the reading of the index of continuing claims for the week of 17 Of the month, up by 50 thousand to 1,710 thousand applications against 1,660 thousand applications, worse than the expectations of 1,663 thousand applications.

To the release of housing data, which showed a decline in new home sales 2.6% against 0.7% in September, contrary to expectations of a rise of 0.8%, while the annual reading of the same index showed a widening decline to 4.6% compared to 3.3% in the annual reading Prior to September, which is also worse than the forecast for a contraction of 2.8%.

Technical analysis:

EURUSD starts today's trading with a positive calm to gradually creep towards pivotal resistance 1.1443, which requires attention from the upcoming trades as a breach of this level will push the price to achieve more gains and visit the levels 1.1550 and 1.1705 mainly.

So far, we continue to favor the bearishness over the short and medium term at 1.1443, supported by the SMA 50 which meets the mentioned level to add more strength to it, while the Stochastic is showing a bullish cross towards the overbought area, thus increasing the chance to reach 1.1443. With a reminder that our main targets start at 1.1300 and extend to 1.1181.

The trading range for today is expected among the 1.1280 support and the 1.1443 resistance.

Support and resistance:

Support: 1.1341-1.1292-1.1210;

Resistance: 1.1386-1.1443-1.1500.

The general trend for today is bearish.