Oil Analysis 12.11.2018

Crude oil futures rose more than 1 percent during the Asian session to see Nymex crude rise for the first time in 11 sessions, ending the longest daily losses since mid-1984 and seeing Brent crude rise for the second session in 11 sessions, The fourth lowest since October 22, according to the inverse relationship between them amid a lack of economic data by the US economy on Monday because of the Veterans Day holiday in the United States.

Crude oil futures for December delivery rose 1.26% to trade at $ 60.95 a barrel from $ 60.19 a barrel. Brent crude futures rose 15% (January) 1.74% to trade at $ 71.40 a barrel compared to the opening at $ 70.18 per barrel, while the dollar index rose 0.13% to 97.03, the highest since the beginning of this month compared to the opening at 96.90.

Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said on Sunday in Abu Dhabi during a meeting of the committee that oversees the agreement to cut world oil production in 2016 by 1.2 million barrels per day, which was expanded to 1.8 million barrels per day earlier this year between OPEC And its allies producers from outside, led by Russia, because the demand for Saudi oil is declining due to seasonal factors and then Saudi Arabia will reduce production.

Saudi Arabia, the world's third largest oil producer and the largest producer of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) and the world's largest oil exporter, has said it plans to cut its oil exports by 500,000 bpd next month, coinciding with a warning from OPEC and its producer allies. Over the weekend that they may need "new strategies", which enhances opportunities for expansion of production reduction policies.

Earlier this month, the Russian Energy Ministry reported that Russia's oil production rose to its highest level in three decades during the past month to 11.41 million barrels per day. We would like to point out that Russia is still committed to OPEC with the agreement to reduce global production Of oil by 1.8 million barrels per day until the end of this year, Russia's share of the agreement about 600 thousand barrels per day.

In addition, last week we followed US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's statement that the United States had decided to exempt eight countries - China, India, South Korea, Japan, Italy, Greece and Taiwan and Turkey - from abiding by US economic sanctions. Iran, where they will be allowed to import Iranian oil for 180 days without signing any US sanctions on them.

Technical Analysis:

The price of oil is showing some bullishness approaching the resistance test of the descending channel, which is currently at 61.60, accompanied by stochastic loss of the positive momentum and approaching the overbought areas. The 20 MA is pushing the price down while SMA 50 continues to protect the trades Within the descending channel.

Therefore, we will maintain our bearish outlook for the upcoming sessions unless the 61.60 level is breached and stability above it, noting that our next main target is at 58.00.

Support and resistance:

Support: 60.22-59.80-57.90

Resistance: 61.30-62.00-62.65

The trading range for today is expected among the support at 59.00 and the resistance at 62.00

The general trend for today is bearish.