Oil Analysis 08.11.2018

Crude oil futures fluctuated in a narrow range during the Asian session, showing mixed performance, offsetting the rise in the US dollar index, adding to its second-lowest session since October 22 according to the inverse relationship between them following developments and economic data followed Thursday. On the Chinese economy, the world's largest energy importer and on the eve of economic data expected Thursday by the US economy, the largest consumer of energy in the world in conjunction with the proceedings of the meeting of the Federal Committee in Washington.

Crude oil futures for December delivery rose 0.06% to currently trade at $ 61.71 per barrel, compared to the opening at $ 61.67 a barrel. Brent crude futures declined on December 15, (December) 0.03% to trade at $ 72.05 per barrel compared to the opening at $ 72.07 per barrel, while the US dollar index rose 0.25% to 96.24 levels, showing a rebound from a two-week low compared to the opening at 96.00.

We followed the Chinese economy, the second largest economy in the world and second largest industrialized nation after the United States disclosed the reading of the trade balance index, which showed a surplus of 234 billion yuan, or $ 34.0 billion, compared to 213 billion yuan, or $ 31.7 billion. Last September, contrary to expectations that the surplus shrank to 209 billion yuan, or $ 31.3 billion.

On the other hand, investors are looking for the US economy to reveal the reading of the index of claims for the week ending on the third of this month, which may reflect stability in 214 thousand requests, unchanged from the previous weekly reading, while the reading of the index of continuing claims for the week in the past 27 From last month, up by 4 thousand applications to 1,635 thousand applications compared to 1,631 thousand applications in the previous weekly reading.

The US Energy Information Administration report on crude oil inventories showed yesterday that the surplus widened to 5.8 million barrels during the week ending on the second of this month compared to 3.2 million barrels in the previous weekly reading, in contrast to expectations that the surplus shrank to 2.0 million barrels, 431.8 million barrels, so stocks are up 3% higher than the average of the past five years for such a time of year.

In the same context, the management report showed that the United States, the world's largest energy consumer, had 1.9 million barrels of fuel stocks, accounting for 8 percent more than the average for the past five years, while distillate stocks, including heating oil, Fell 3.5 million barrels, so inventories are less than 6% of the average of the past five years for such a time of year.

Technical Analysis:

Oil is trading below 62.00 and continues to move within the descending channel shown above, while the moving averages 7-20-50 are a continuous negative pressure that supports the continuation of the downside movement over the coming period.

Therefore, we will hold onto our downside if the 62.90 level is not breached, and our awaited targets start at 60.00 and extend to 58.65.

The trading range for today is expected among the support at 60.00 and the resistance at 62.90

The general trend for today is bearish

Support and resistance:

Resistance: 62.15-62.65-63.30

Support: 60.50-60.00-58.80

Trading opportunities for the day: Sell at 62.00 and target 60.55 and stop loss above 62.60