European premarket 11.01.2013

 

We do not expect further growth in the euro against the U.S. dollar

 

European shares ended trading on Thursday mixed. M. Draghi optimistic statement that the situation in the euro area is improving, had a negative impact on the stock markets of Europe.

"Economic activity should gradually recover" in 2013, in part because of a "significant" improvement in the financial markets, - said M. Draghi. (Dow Jones Newswires) His speech made it clear to investors that their expectations for continued easy monetary policy may be unfounded.

The leaders of growth were the paper banks, thanks to the good placement of Spain's debt securities in the open market, which led for the first time in recent years to reduce the yield on Spanish 10-year government bonds below the threshold of 5%, stood at 4.90%. Shares of Banco Santander (+1.27%), Societe Generale (+1.71%) and Intesa Sanpaolo (+2.92%.)

Index DJ EURO STOXX BANK up to previous trading closed at 124.89 (+0.87%).

 

Major European indexes at the close of the previous trading session: FTSE 100 - 6,101.51 (+0.05%); DAX 30 - 7,708.47 (-0.16%); CAC 40 - 3,703.12 (-0.39%). Futures morning before the opening of trading in Europe FTSE 100 IDX - 6066.80 (-0.04%); DAX INDEX - 7727.00 (-0.03%); CAC40 - 3713.30 (+0.04%). Trading in Europe will open neutral.

 

European index of "blue chips" FTSEurofirst 300, closed on Thursday at 1,164.65 (-0.29%).

 

Before the opening of the European session US yield on 10-year T-Note is 1.90% (+0.006 NCP), the 10-year German Government Bonds is 1.56% (+0.003 NCP), and the 10-year UK Government Bonds is 2.98% (+0.074 NCP).

 

Oil futures morning before the opening of the European trading session after declining growth in recent days because of fears that the demonstration of the high inflation in China will prevent further measures to stimulate the economy.

Brent Oil (ICE) in morning electronic trading before the opening of Europe at 111.39 (-0.45%), and U.S. crude oil WTI (ICE) 93.69 (-0.14%).

Gold futures morning at 1,672.80 (-0.31%), quotes of copper at

368.35 (-0.67%).

Commodity Index CRB Index for the previous trading day was 296.53 (+0.87%).

 

In the currency market after yesterday's sharp weakening of the U.S. dollar against the optimistic speech Draghi noted a slight correction. We do not expect further weakening the strong dollar in the short term.

Futures on the dollar index, which reflects the value of the U.S. currency against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, is 79.92 (+0.12%).

    

Prediction of the day:

We expect that growth in the euro against the dollar will be limited, and possibly level of 1.3390. Closest level from which the pair can correct down is the level 1.3300.

 

Events today:

Moscow time

12.15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index in December n / a; -0,1% m / m, -0.3% m / m

13.30 UK manufacturing output in November n / a; 0,6% m / m, -1.3% m / m

13.30 UK Industrial production in November n / a; 0,8% m / m, -0.8% m / m

17.30 Canada trade balance in November n / a; 0,3 billion kan.doll.; Kan.doll -0.2 billion.

17:30 U.S. November trade balance n / a -41,1 billion -42.2 billion

17.30 U.S. Import prices in December n / a; 0,1% m / m, -0.9% m / m

19.00 UK GDP growth (from NIESR) December n / a; n / a; 0,1% m / m

23.00 U.S. Federal budget balance in December n / a; -22,1 billion; -172.1 billion U.S. dollars

 

Sergei Kostenko

 

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