Fundamental review of the market on 05.12.13

US dollar has a good potential for growth

Yesterday’s data on employment from ADP that comes out before the data on employment in a non-agricultural sector of the US economy came out much better than it was predicted 215 000 against 173 000. This is a good signal that the main data that comes out on Friday will be good as well due to the expectation that economic stimuli will be reduced. It will definitely give a good support to a US dollar.

Attention of the market will be concentrated on the results of the Bank of England and European Central Bank meetings today as well. Market participants do not expect anything new from them. It looks like there will be another statement of intent to keep the same course of the monetary policy.

Today market participants will be looking at the data on US GDP, and also on application of unemployment benefits. The forecast on GDP is quite optimistic 3% against the previous 2.8%. If the data will be such as predicted this will be another reason for the Fed to announce the beginning of the stimulus reduction already on the next meeting of the Fed on December 18^th.

In this case, of course, we expect the shift of interest on the market to the purchase of the US dollar.

SemoynKamenski