Fundamental review 01/25/2013

The yen is likely to continue to fall ...

Japanese regulator managed to do the impossible, that it has not been possible to do for a long time, namely to contribute to the strong weakening of the yen against the dollar and the euro. The yen fell to a minimum 2.5 years against the U.S. dollar and a 21-month low against the euro due to continued soft policy of the Central Bank of Japan. After a small correction of the yen continued to fall on the statements of Deputy Economy Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura, who said yesterday that the "decline rates have not yet completed and the level of 100 to the U.S. dollar will not be a problem." And it seems that USDJPY can expect the level of 95.00 in the short term.

At the same time waiting for data on inflation in Canada has a negative pressure on the Canadian dollar. Today Canada is to publish data on inflation. It is assumed that the consumer price index fell by 0.2%. If expectations are correct, then such a moderate inflation will support the U.S. dollar against canadian dollar, as it levels out a possible rise in interest rates in the short term.

The British pound also has the potential to continue to fall against the dollar amid disappointing economic data on the British economy.

In general we can say that in the short term, do not expect further weakening of the U.S. dollar.
 
Events today:
Moscow time
13.00 Germany Ifo business climate index in January n / a; 103,1; 102,4
during the day World Economic Forum
13.30 UK Preliminary data on GDP growth kv.2012 4 n / a; -0,1% q / q and 0.9% q / q
13.30 UK index of business activity in the service sector in November n / a; 0,5% 3m/3m, 1.1% 3m/3m
17.30 Canada Core CPI in December n / a; -0,2% m / m and 0.0% m / m
17:30 Canada CPI q n / a; -0,2% m / m, -0.2% m / m
19.00 U.S. sales in the primary market in December n / a; 383,000; 377,000

Sergei Kostenko

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