FUNDAMENTAL REVIEW 09.01.13

 

The new year has come but the old problems remain unsolved

 

Optimism associated with the agreements reached on the moratorium since the tax increase in line with the notorious "fiscal cliff" for two months, was short and quickly vanished like the morning mist, leaving uncertainty that weighed on the markets of New Year the past two months.

 

Market participants are not seeing clear prospects for overcoming the fiscal crisis in the U.S., shifting their attention to the beginning of the season of corporate reporting in America. Major U.S. aluminum producer Alcoa issued statements after the close of trading on Tuesday. Profit of the company coincided with forecasts, and its shares rose 0.3%. But in spite of this, investors are unsure what the whole reporting of U.S. companies would rise, and the uncertainty with the budget crisis is forcing players to cut long positions.

 

Against this background, the foreign exchange market continues to consolidate, so the bidders can not see clear and precise signals to the market. On the one hand the data from Europe, pointing to rising unemployment, which reached its highest level of 11.8%, and on the other the lack of agreement in the U.S., resulting in reduced activity even speculators.

 

The unexpected drop in retail sales in Australia by 0.1% to 21.53 billion Australian dollars hurt the local currency, which is recovering well at the end of the year. It seems that the high Australian dollar hurts the national economy, which may make the RBA once again think about the easing of monetary policy.

 

Eurodollar couple gets in Asian trading weak support amid reports Alcoa, but waiting for results of the ECB meeting, which will take place this week, holding back growth.

 

In general we can say that the state of uncertainty characteristic of the end of last year continues and a new beginning in 2013.

 

Events today:

Moscow time

13.30 UK trade balance in November n / a; -9,0 billion pounds.; -9.5 Billion pounds.

14.00 Eurozone Final figures for Q3 GDP growth. 2012 n / a; -0,1% q / q, -0.1% q / q

15.00 Germany Industrial production in November n / a; 1,1% m / m, -2.6% m / m

17.15 Canada Construction December n / a; 198,000; 196,000

19.30 U.S. Crude Oil Stocks for the week 30.12-05.01 n / a; n / a; -11,1 million barrels.

 

Sergei Kostenko