FUNDAMENTAL REVIEW 20.12.12

 

Disputes on overcoming the fiscal crisis continues

 

The next round of talks between U.S. President Barack Obama and House Speaker John Bonaire nothing brought. This is somewhat disappointed the market, but in general the moment that did not have a decisive impact on investor sentiment.

 

In the meantime, investors are hoping that the U.S. will be able to reach an agreement before the end of 2012 and avoid "breaking the budget."

 

Positive data from Germany and the United States allow us to hope that the markets will continue to bargain optimistic. The latest data on German business sentiment rose in December, business, and the number of permits for new homes in the U.S. have their maximum values ​​almost the last 4.5 years.

 

Currency market last days actually show steady weakening of the U.S. dollar in the first place due to the last decision of the Fed to continue supersoft monetary policy until the mid 2015's credit rating by S & P for Greece. Well, of course, additional positive expectations were positive solution of the budget crisis in the U.S..

 

European currencies feel good against the U.S. dollar. The single currency has reached levels of the end of September this year. But, despite this, we do not expect its further sustainable growth in the new year.

 

Today we should pay attention to data from the U.S.. Positive statistics will be able to support the dollar and cause a correction to its strengthening in the currency market.

 

Events today:

Moscow time

13:30 UK Retail sales in November n / a; 0,3% m / m, -0.8% m / m

17.30 Canada Basic index of retail sales in October n / a; 0,2% m / m and 0.0% m / m

17:30 Canada Retail sales in October n / a; 0,1% m / m and 0.1% m / m

17.30 U.S. The number of applications for unemployment benefits last week, December 9-15, n / a; 350,000; 343,000

17.30 U.S. Final figures for Q3 GDP growth. 2012 n / a; 2,8% q / q, 2.7% q / q

17.30 U.S. Final data on the price index of GDP Q3. 2012 n / a; 2,7% q / q, 2.7% q / q

19.00 Eurozone consumer confidence in November n / a; -26; -27

19.00 U.S. sales of existing homes in November n / a; 4,85 million, 4.79 million

19:00 U.S. Fed's manufacturing index, the Philadelphia December n / a; -1,8; -10,7

19.00 U.S. index of leading indicators, NE Nov. n / a; -0,1% m / m and 0.2% m / m

19.00 U.S. house price index in October n / a; 0,2% m / m and 0.2% m / m

19.30 U.S. natural gas reserves for the week December 9-15, n / a; n / a; 2 billion cubic meters. ft.