FUNDAMENTAL REVIEW 14.12.12

 

European crisis has passed its worst period ...

 

According to EU officials rush of the European financial crisis is over and the general situation in the euro area is stabilized, but the truth, it is still far from being resolved. In any case, the Greek picture slowly begins to change in a positive way. Yesterday's decision by eurozone finance ministers and the International Monetary Fund put Greece 49.1 billion euros in assistance programs by the end of March next year, significantly reduce tension in the markets. While significantly large portion of this amount will go to the country in the near future.

"The money will come to Greece next week - said the Eurogroup chairman Jean-Claude Juncker at the press conference after the meeting. - We are convinced that the program will go back through the stable." (Reuters)

Against the background of the single currency of the European events, supported by weakness in the U.S. dollar due to the continuation of the course over loose monetary policy continues to grow up in the foreign exchange market against the U.S. currency.

 

Noticeably strong oversold since last spring indicates the likelihood of local growth. But in general we do not expect its strong fortifications, while stabilization in the euro area will have a positive impact on the growth of a single currency for some time.

 

Yesterday's statistics from the U.S. was not unequivocal and did not support the U.S. dollar. Retail sales were worse than expected 0.3% versus 0.5%, and an application for unemployment benefits, the projected 343 000 370 000, failed to improve investor sentiment burdened by the lack of arrangements to address the budget crisis.

 

Today, the most interesting will be the data index of business activity in the industry in Germany, the euro zone and the U.S., as well as figures of consumer price index in November in the eurozone.

 

Events today:

Moscow time

12:30 Germany PMI industry December n / a; n / a; 46,8

12:30 Germany PMI services December n / a; 50,0; 49,7

13.00 Eurozone business activity in the industry in December n / a; 46,6; 46,2

13.00 Eurozone business activity in the services sector in December n / a; 47,0; 46,7

13.00 Eurozone Employment Change Q3. 2012 n / a; 0,0% q / q and 0.0% q / q

during the day Eurozone EU Economic Summit

14.00 Eurozone consumer price index in November n / a; 2,2% y / y, 2.2% y / y

14.00 Eurozone core consumer price index in November n / a; 1,5% y / y and 1.5% y / y

Canada 17.30 Change in volume production deliveries in October n / a; 0,0% m / m, 0.4% y / y

17.30 U.S. core consumer price index in November n / a; 0,2% m / m and 0.2% m / m

17.30 U.S. Consumer Price Index in November n / a; -0,1% m / m and 0.1% m / m

18.00 U.S. index of business activity in the industry in December n / a; 52,6; 52,8

18.15 U.S. Capacity Utilization November n / a; 77,9%; 77,8%

18.15 U.S. The Industrial Production in November n / a; 0,3% m / m, -0.4% m / m

 

Sergei Kostenko