FUNDAMENTAL REVIEW 15.11.12

 

The FOMC has disappointed investors...

 

Yesterday's publication of the minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee Federal Reserve FOMC disappointed investors. Uncertainty of whether the Fed will buy more government bonds under the "twist-2" or not. The fact that the program will end in December, and further prospects dim.

 

The ambiguous position of the canoes Committee suggests that the change in Fed policy can linger, so this leaves the situation with the prospects of QE 3 in limbo and this is despite the fact that most members of the Federal Reserve expected to increase purchases of government bonds in 2013.

 

Recent statistics from the euro zone continues to disappoint investors. German economic slowdown raises serious concerns among market participants. The latest data of the index of economic sentiment in the Fed has been so bad that it starts to scare investors who had hoped that Germany will be able to resist the great challenges of the European debt crisis.

In this regard, today will be important German GDP forecast data for the third quarter. Forecast indicates that analysts expect a slowdown in this indicator, which, of course, definitely will put pressure on the single currency. In addition to these data, today released a block of statistics from the euro zone and the U.S., which will undoubtedly have an impact on the markets.

 

By now the market says continued consolidation of European currencies in expectation of important statistics. The yen continues to weaken sharply against the continuation of the aggressive loose monetary policy of the Bank of Japan. Commodity currencies traded in different directions, the Australian dollar falls against the dollar, but the Canadian dollar is growing up a little supported by high oil prices due to higher escalation in the Middle East.

 

In general we can say that the picture in the markets remains uncertain and is characterized by a high degree of volatility.

 

Events today:

Moscow time

11.00 Germany Preliminary data on changes in GDP 3 kv.2012 n / a; 0,1% q / q, 0.3% q / q

13.00 Eurozone ECB Monthly Bulletin

13.30 UK retail sales in October n / a; -0,1% m / m and 0.6% m / m

14.00 Eurozone consumer price index in October n / a; 2,5% y / y, 2.5% y / y

14.00 Eurozone core consumer price index in October n / a; 1,5% y / y and 1.5% y / y

14.00 Eurozone Preliminary assessment of change in GDP Q3. 2012 n / a; -0,2% q / q, 0.2% q / q

17.30 Canada Consumer Price Index in September n / a; 0,3% m / m and 1.5% m / m

17.30 U.S. core consumer price index in October n / a; 0,1% m / m and 0.1% m / m

17.30 U.S. Consumer Price Index in October n / a; 0,1% m / m and 0.6% m / m

17.30 U.S. The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits 05.11-11.11 n / a; 362.000; 355.000

17.30 U.S. index of business activity in the industry the FBI in New York in November n / a; -7,0; -6,2

18.00 U.S. President's speech Richmond Fed Dzh.Lakera

19.00 U.S. manufacturing index according to the Philadelphia Fed n / a; n / a; 2,3 5,7

19.00 U.S. Mortgage loans past due 3 square. 2012 n / a; n / a; 7,58%

19.30 Canada Bulletin of the Bank of Canada

19.30 Change in U.S. natural gas reserves 05.11-11.11 n / a; n / a; 21 billion cubic meters. ft.

20:00 U.S. Change oil 05.11-11.11 n / a; n / a; 1,8 million barrels.

22.20 U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke Speech