FUNDAMENTAL REVIEW 13.11.12

 

Euro will remain under pressure

 

The general weakness of the single currency, burdened Greek problems will continue in the short term. The main reason is the active position of the ECB aimed at further easing of monetary policy. Period of positive news ends, so as not to be expected that the new supporting factors for the single currency.

Despite the fact that Athens must be approved for financial assistance from the Euro Group, as well as another two more years to get closer to the target levels of the budget news from Greece do not maintain optimism for the single currency.

 

In markets continues to play out a show called "fiscal cliff." Start timer berating the number of days to the hour "X" by the mass media also has a nervous pressure on investor sentiment. The impression is that the unwinding of hysteria probability "fiscal cliff" is done specifically to make the U.S. stock market adjusted downward, and the pot is on the fact that Obama and Congress agreed to actively buy pretty depreciating assets.

 

We believe the agreement will necessarily achieved, and then it will be a good reason for buying risk in markets with a traditional weakening of the U.S. dollar.

 

Today we should pay attention to the statistics from the UK, the eurozone and the U.S.. Positive news locally can put pressure on the U.S. dollar.

 

Events today:

Moscow time

12.15 Switzerland Producer price index in October n / a; 0,2% m / m, 0.3% y / y

during the day. Eurozone finance ministers meet EU

13.30 UK consumer price index in October n / a; 2,3% y / y, 2.2% y / y

13.30 UK producer price index in October n / a; -0,4% m / m, -0.2% m / m

13.30 UK Retail Price Index in October n / a; 2,9% y / y, 2.6% y / y

13.30 UK Core CPI in October n / a; 2,2% y / y, 2.1% y / y

13.30 UK house price index for September n / a; 2,1% y / y, 1.8% y / y

13.30 UK Producer Price Index in October n / a; 0,2% m / m and 0.5% m / m

Germany 14.00 The index of business expectations ZEW November n / a; -10,1; -11,5

14.00 Eurozone ZEW business expectations from November n / a; 0,2; -1,4

during the day. UK Report of the Bank of England's inflation

19.00 U.S. economic optimism index of consumers from IBD / TIPP November n / a; 53,8; 54,0

23.00 U.S. Federal budget balance in October n / a; -126,2 billion dollars,. 75.0 billion