FUNDAMENTAL REVIEW 11.10.12

 

Today, the market's attention is focused on data from the US ...

 

Data from the "beige book" was published last night and stated in general slow but steady recovery of the US economy. It was noted that for the first time since 2009, the unemployment rate fell to 7.8% in September, and in accordance with these ISM manufacturing index rose to 51.5 points last month compared to its August value 49.6 points.

 

Information from the "beige book" is encouraging and amid upcoming stabilize the situation in Europe shows that, perhaps, the world economy is already at the lowest point of its fall. Anyway, yesterday's news from Europe indicate that possibility.

 

European banks are starting to change their attitude to the financial market of Portugal, pointing out that the economy is starting to act normal measures of economic regulation, and not anti-crisis measures. This shows the situation in Portugal is changing for the better and are following it, it will start to change in other countries affected by the debt crisis.

 

One can say that the anti-crisis measures taken in the eurozone, are beginning to bear fruit.

 

Today's data from Australia continue to point to a growing problem. The economic slowdown in China amid European first problems already starts to really affect the Australian economy. The rise in unemployment to the level of 5.4% can not please, but, moreover, the average level of expected inflation, according to the survey Melbourne Institute, has grown this month and accounted for 2.6%, but is still within the target corridor set by the Reserve Bank of Australia is 2-3%.

 

Overall, the ongoing correction in the currency market indicates that the players took a wait ahead of elections in the US, as well as income market liquidity program QE 3.

 

Today we should pay attention to the statistics from the US.

 

Statistics for today:

Moscow time

11:30 U.S. FOMC Statement member Janet Yellen

Publication 12.00 Eurozone ECB monthly bulletin

16.30 Canada trade balance in August n / a; -1,7 billion; -2.3 billion

16.30 Canada Price Index in the primary market in August n / a 0,2% m / m 0.1% m / m

16:30 US August trade balance n / a; -43,9 billion; -42.08 billion

16.30 US The number of applications for unemployment benefits last week 30.09-06.10 n / a; 370,000; 367,000

16.30 US Import prices in September n / a; 0,7% m / m, 0.7% y / y

18.00 of the members of the US FOMC Jeremy Stein

18:30 US natural gas reserves for the week 30.09-06.10 n / a; n / a; 77 billion cubic feet.

19.00 US Crude Oil Stocks this week 1.10-7.10 n / a; n / a; -0,5 million barrels.

22.00 US Federal budget balance September n / a; -4,0 billion; -190.5 billion

 

Sergei Kostenko