FUNDAMENTAL REVIEW 04.10.12

 

Dollar will be under pressure today

 

Market situation remains tense. Spain's unwillingness to take advantage of financial aid, makes the situation worse and uncertain. And the expectation of weak corporate reports of American companies has put pressure on commodity assets and risk-appetite of investors. And this is happening despite the positive data on employment in the private sector, the U.S. from the company Automatic Data Processing Inc (ADP), which was better than expected. The number of jobs in September increased by 162,000. ISM service sector index for September also came out better than expected 55.1 points versus 53.2 points predicted value.

 

Statistics from the Eurozone has also proved to be somewhat better than expected, though, and in General remained quite sad. PMI from Eurozone service sector in September rose to 46.1 points from 46.0 points in August, the forecast of 46 points. PMI consolidated euro area, which includes data manufacturing sector in September rose to 46.1 points from 45.9 points a month earlier in the forecast 45.9 points.

 

But despite that investors continued to be cautious before the publication of data on applications for unemployment benefits in the U.S. last week and the decision of the Bank of England and ECB interest rates. It can be assumed that the rates will remain the same. But the attention of market participants will focus on ECB President Draghi M., and publishing protocol Moments Fed, which will be published later in the evening.

 

On the foreign exchange market there was a slight weakening of the us dollar. It is obvious that investors expect that the statistics would not be worse than expected, and the minutes of the fed and the words Dredges are aspirational and on this background, the U.S. currency will continue to decline, and the attitude of investors to the risky game improve somewhat.

 

Statistics for today:

Moscow time

 

Volume 15.00 UK asset purchase by the Bank of England, n / a; n / a; 375 billion pounds

15.00 UK decision of the Bank of England's interest rate n / a; 0,50%; 0,50%

during the day UK Statement on the interest rate the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England

15.30 The number of planned layoffs USA (from Challenger) September n / a; n / a; -36,9% y / y

15.45 Eurozone ECB's decision on interest rates n / a; 0,75%; 0,75%

16.30 Eurozone ECB press conference

16.30 U.S. The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits 24.09-30.09 n / a; 371.000; 359.000

18.00 Canada Business Index from September Ivey n / a; 59,0; 62,5

18.00 U.S. volume of industrial orders in August n / a; -4,1% m / m and 2.8% m / m

18.30 Change in U.S. natural gas reserves 24.09-30.09 n / a; n / a; 80 billion cubic meters. ft.

21.30 Canada's Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada T.Maklema

22.00 U.S. publication of the minutes of the FOMC meeting

 

Sergei Kostenko